Iowa

As bad as it looks from the outside, Iowa is still a near swing state. Last election was a 44/54 split. The Republican 2016 take over gave Republicans the trifecta of house, senate, and governor. They hobbled the census, and threw out the historic joint commission of drawing new lines to reduce Democrats to have no federal representation.

Iowa is severely, blatantly gerrymandered, done by splitting the urban centers and extending the rural left. Iowa, under Republicans, has among the lowest population growth in the nation. The older rural population is stuck, but progressive, educated young leave the state in relatively larger numbers.

As you might guess, the educated workforce is in very high demand (as long as they do so in LCOL wages). These are the ones who are easily able to leave for better wages and amenities. On the other side, Republicans are older and dying off.

I think there's an unreported accelerationist voting bloc that's influencing Trump's numbers.

I know I have seriously thought about supporting him. When I say I'm happy he's dragging the election cycle into hell I'm not being sarcastic - there's an extremely stupid impulse I have to want to watch Trump break America over his knee. It's absolutely self destructive since I'm trans and will probably end up in a ~~concentration~~ conversion therapy camp, but it's hard to resist the urge to Fuck Shit Up.