this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

I get that $500/t seems like an absurd price, but honestly that's not wildly out of line with what the cost of emissions likely are

Even if we eliminate ALL emissions, we will also need some degree of DAC in the mix. You don't fix an oil spill by closing the well. You close the well and then cleanup the spill. And if you wait to develop the technology to clean up the spill until after you closed the well, you've fucked up. It's too late.

There's a presumption in this kind of publishing that money spent on DAC necessarily is being pulled from other projects. If that's true, that's a disaster. But these DAC projects ALSO have to happen. They just have to. And the first and second generations of the facilities aren't going to be very good -- neither were solar panels.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Great then we just set the global carbon price at $500/t and remove it using this. If somebody finds a cheaper solution, then they can do that instead. Since the fossil fuel giants love CCS, they surely support it.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 11 months ago

That would work. Not going to happen because the fossil fuel giants don't actually support it; they support using enough DAC to make a big PR splash, not 100% abatement.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (3 children)

Oxy estimates that the project will separate 500,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year and cost about $1 billion to build. Adding in operations and maintenance, we, and others, estimate the total costs will be more than $500 per ton of avoided carbon dioxide.

As a point of reference, if you replace a 10mi/16km drive to work with a bicycle commute, per year you'd save 356kg of CO2. Source

In other words, that's $1 billion to remove as much carbon as 1.4 million people replacing a drive to work with a bike ride to work and $250 million dollars in each subsequent year.

Edit: Another comparison is that running that carbon capture facility is equivalent to offsetting 0.134 coal plants in one year. It is much, much cheaper to invest in renewable energy and reduce car dependency than to spend on carbon capture.

Source

[–] [email protected] 7 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Mind you, that $1 billion covers the cost of building the facility, not the cost of operating it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Not at all. At $500/t the 1.4million people would not emit $262.5million worth of carbon.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Sorry, I'm not following what you're disputing with the "Not at all" or where the $262.5M figure is from.

All I was comparing is that for $1B it removes as much carbon as 1.4M people riding a bike to work per year which is expensive when put in perspective. Granted, the upkeep after that is 500k tonnes x $500/t = $250MM/year. However, that's still an absurd amount of money to do what a sliver of the population riding a bike can do.

This is fine as an addition to transitioning to renewables, however the funding and advocacy for carbon capture has come from oil companies from the beginning and it is used as a cost of doing business instead of investing in renewables.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

The $500/t is the total cost of building and operating the plant. So it includes the $1billion construction cost. So 1.4million people would not emit $262.5million/year, which is a lot of money, but also it is not insane. It is only $1.14/l of petrol to remove the CO2 from emitted from the atmosphere again. US cost per of petrol it $0.91/l so we would talk about $2.05/l. Price in the Netherlands is at $2.08/l today.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I read somewhere that you could pump CO2 into a saline aquifer and have it stay there indefinitely. Should we be capturing the CO2 from breweries and doing this? Ethanol fuel production? I mean all these plants are doing direct air capture already. If we just route the off gassing underground it would seem like a cheap way to leverage existing technology.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

There are several ways to store CO2 underground, of which the mechanism you describe is one. There remain issues with getting the CO2 from the places you describe to geologically suitable locations.

Above and beyond it, what you've described and the high cost of doing it, this is what we end up with:

Fifteen CCS facilities are currently operating in the United States. Together, they have the capacity to capture 0.4 percent of the nation’s total annual CO2 emissions. An additional 121 CCS facilities are under construction or in development. If all of them were completed, they would increase the nation’s CCS capacity to 3 percent of current annual CO2 emissions.

Those percentages are small in part because CCS is generally used in sectors that have the lowest costs for capturing CO2—such as natural gas processing and ammonia and ethanol production—and those sectors account for a small share of total U.S. CO2 emissions. Almost all CCS facilities recoup some of their costs by using the captured CO2 to force more oil out of partially depleted oil wells.