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If current disqualifications hold, Trump will have lost access to 33 electoral college votes and needs 270 to win. Assuming it's Trump vs Biden in the general, that's almost half a California.
2020 went 306-232. Trump won 2016 304-227 partly due to faithless electors.
At the current pace and schedule of the impending Trump trials, and after accounting for judgments already rendered and how those are affecting Republican party bankrolls, it's gonna be a blowout. He's on track to lose another 3 dozen electors by October and that's guessing hyper conservatively
Let's not get comfortable though. We all still need to get out and vote come November.
Haley is almost as bad for America, and definitely worse for Palestine and Ukraine than Biden, who she is projected to beat. The difference, quite frankly, is just how blatant the corruption will be.
In the debates, Haley pretty strongly advocated to sending lethal aid to Ukraine (I guess you could be arguing that sending aid to Ukraine, prolonging the war, is bad for Ukraine).
The entire Republican party is a threat to democracy and human rights at this point in time. Project 2025 will likely go ahead with any Republican president. Crazy right-wing, christo-fascist, and "states rights" civil servants and justices will be appointed, and they'd probably be able to lock Demcrats out of control of the federal government for decades to come (by allowing intense gerrymandering, strategic polling location placement, giving state governments the ability to override voting results, etc).
I don't worry that she will end democracy.
She will do a bunch of dumb Republican stuff and make America objectively worse for a lot of people. But the Republic will survive her presidency at least.
Trump, not so much.
Correct me if I'm wrong but being removed from the primary ballot has no real standing for general election. It doesn't matter that he can't be on the primary when the GOP has chosen him already. It's just posturing. He hasn't lost any electoral votes.
You're not wrong.
You're not wrong. However, it's still massively consequential because if he can be taken off the ballot for the primary, he will also be taken off the ballot for the general. It will be interesting to see how SCOTUS rules. Will they decide to create a new legal test at the federal level? Will they throw it back to Congress? Since they supposedly love states rights so much, will they leave it up to each state to decide?
Each option is incredibly consequential. Option 1 allows the Supreme Court to disqualify candidates. Option 2 turns it into a political contest, like an impeachment proceeding. Option 3 is absolute chaos, since we know some states will disingenuously retaliate by removing Biden from their ballot regardless of whether there is any merit to an insurrection charge.
Right. I wasn't trying to say that this isn't setting precedent that will help for later rulings. Let's just not count our chickens before they hatch. Some people are acting like Trump is already down electoral votes because of this, which he isn't. That's the only point I was trying to make l.
I was just bored crunching numbers on the ride home but I did say the damn ting
I don't understand. Assuming it's Trump vs Biden doesn't change anything about what I said.
You stopped short again. Cheers.
I just said I didn't understand your comment. That was your chance to explain to me what you meant or what I was missing. Instead you turned to insults. So I'll just assume not only was your comment wrong and you couldn't explain yourself, you took it personally. That's all the clarification I needed. Cheers!
You feel insulted because I said you stopped short? It's the truth. I fully and openly qualified what I said as a projection into the general election. Your comment seemed to be based on everything up to the words "in the general."
I'll switch to insults if that's what you really prefer.
Literally quotes "assuming it's Trump vs Biden in the general" to try and prove their point no one understands. Then gets mad that the comment after is made about the literal 8 words they quoted as a rebuttal. You are a comical person.
Thanks
You’re an odd little monkey. They didn’t say they were insulted, nor did they try to insult you. You’re being overly hostile at not being understood, and honestly I have no idea what you’re trying to say either.
Trump was never going to win Illinois anyway.
Yes but we also have this going on.
And what do these people think Trump would do about Israel?
They don't care. They just don't want to be an accomplice by voting for Joe Biden.
They're fine if their inaction leads to Trump winning and fucking up Palestine even more.
At least their 'conscience' will be clear.
Dumbfucks.
I'm baffled as to how people can knowingly make things worse and feel good about because what they did was "right". The whole idea that an action can be right despite making things worse for everyone is completely alien to me, but I know that's literally how some people think.
Welcome to America, where virtue signaling while making things worse has been refined into an art form.
I’ve literally been told that “not choosing either is the morally correct thing” as if consequences should be thrown out the window.
If they are voting in the primary, I doubt they will skip the general election. It's more than likely a reminder to the administration that their voter base is not happy with the current decision making. If they are protesting stuff like this, they are most likely D voters anyway (over 90 % of D voters are pro-ceasefire vs 53? % for the R voterbase.
Yeah I'm having a very hard time feeling any comfort with that concept strongly looming.
It's not just a count of electoral votes, the votes are not '50/50' shot. Colorado has been consistently democrat for 16 years , Illinois and Maine for like 30 years. These weren't going to Trump no way no how.