LETS FUCKING GOOOOO
this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2024
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Is 13pct supposed to be good? This is a cope thread.
Depends on how you look at it. Percentage-wise, it is not as good. In 2012, running uncontested as incumbent Obama had 10% uncommitted.
However, if you look at the number of votes, the Dem primary in Michigan today had about 5x the turnout compared to 2012 Obama primary, because people turned out to vote uncommitted and the Dem-drones to avoid Biden embarrassment also came out to vote. Today we will likely reach 100k uncommitted votes, which is 5x the 20k uncommitted votes in 2012. That means 80k extra people took time of their day to waste time casting a protest vote. Hillary lost Michigan to Trump by 11k votes, and Biden won Michigan by 150k votes, so 80k worth of protest votes in Michigan can swing the whole state easily.
Appreciate the color; I think most will fall in line, but it looks like the media is having to acknowledge the dissent at least.
Yeah kinda a mixed result. It is nice that the media had to acknowledge the dissent, and that's the bottom line of the night. The amount of people voting out of spite is to be commended.
The uncommitted showed strength not only in Arab American precincts, but also in predominantly white and young college towns like Ann Arbor. These college kids would likely just straight up not vote rather than getting coerced to fall in line. What is somewhat disappointing is the lack of solidarity by Black people in Detroit, I would've thought that there would be more solidarity there given how many Black activists supported the Palestinian cause.
My intuitions are only that, given the incredibly unpopular Republican culture war platform, there's going to be a lot of enthusiasm down ballot, even if there is squeamishness for Biden himself; Dems are positively stronger on labor than any time in recent memory-- UAW and SF probably net Dems big in MI, if anywhere. I think sans Gaza Biden would be looking at a larger margin than last time, and from your helpfully provided numbers above, even that 80k protest vote isn't sufficient to cut into the 2020 margin (those people are not going to vote for Trump).
Again, I think we agree that as long as there's a plausible threat that Biden flubs, there's hope for some concessions; I'm not sure Biden losing is good, but I wish the threat was stronger/more motivating.
What's the good number supposed to be
Haley got over twice that and the vibe is that she is beyond finished.
The Republican still had somewhat competitive primary, so turnout is way larger. Republican today had >300k turnout than Democrats, corresponding to +10% lead in total popular votes. By your logic, Dems are beyond finished if they lose Michigan by 10%