this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2024
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I feel like the better goal would be 150k, about how much Biden beat Trump by. But if the current percentages don’t change much they’ll fall a little shy of that. Still enough to show that there’s a very good chance of Biden losing, but > Biden’s 2020 margin would’ve been a very clear nail in the coffin for his chances in Michigan.
Also as far as I can tell there’s still a decent chance they’ll fall just shy of 15% as well.