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According to his particular reading of history, Putin considers that Ukraine “is an artificial state” that belongs to the Russian sphere.

All states are artificial, mr. liberal.

I read article after article warning that Russia could win the war in Ukraine. It surprises me. There is no way for them to win. Yes, everyone loses. As Martha Gellhorn, a writer who lived through the Spanish Civil War with her future husband Ernest Hemingway, said, “In war there is neither victory nor defeat. There is only catastrophe.”

But Russia is not going to win in Ukraine. Not even if Vladimir Putin achieved his initial objective: conquering all Ukrainian territory and imposing a puppet government in Kiev. Because in the long run that is the worst thing that could happen.

Putin wants to take ALL of Ukraine? Is this Hearts of Iron IV? I'm sorry man but I don't think Putin wants ALL of Ukraine, just the eastern and southern parts. The western regions will be handled by Poland, however.

Imagine the mess the Russians would get into. They would have to install an occupying army in a country twice the size of Germany, most of whose citizens detest them. The resistance would consist of a militia of at least 100,000 combat veterans armed by Western governments. Military orthodoxy says that in such circumstances the occupation army troops need to outnumber the partisans by a factor of 25 to 1.

Talk about having a shit starting point. His entire base for this analysis is the idea (a fact, to him) that Putin wants to take over ALL of Ukraine, something that only warmonger liberals believe in. Political, military and economic realities say otherwise, Russia will most likely cripple Ukraine and leave it to whatever western company to dismantle what remains. Also imagine thinking a "100,000 combat veterans armed by Western governments" will pose a massive threat to the Russians in the scenario, holy fuck, the already-existing, western-supplied ukrainian army is getting annihilated as we speak right now. STOP FANTASIZING ABOUT COMPLETELY ARTIFICIAL "WESTERN SUPREMACY" lmao.

In other words, Russia would have to deploy more than two million soldiers in Ukraine sine die, all of them vulnerable to death under fire every day. The wear and tear in lives and money would be permanent; the consequences for Russian internal politics, progressively more destabilizing.

Russia is in a full blown war with Ukraine and parts of NATO right now and the so-called consequences are nowhere to be seen. If anything, Putin is more popular than ever. The guy is even liquidating weak opposition leaders lol.

Let's move on to a less unlikely scenario. That an end to the war be finally negotiated in which Ukraine gives up Crimea and a good part of the territories in the southeast of the country that the Russians control today. A defeat for Ukraine? At first glance maybe yes. But consider.

Actually, the most likely scenario suddenly becomes the most unlikely lmfao.

By far most of the gigantic cost of post-war reconstruction, of cities like Mariupol that the Russian army has reduced to rubble, would have to be paid by Moscow. The Ukrainian government would be free to invest the billions that would come from friendly countries in the development of a nation whose size would be perhaps 80 percent of what it was, but whose potential is enormous. Ukrainian fertile land is abundant; young talent in new technologies, too. The Ukrainian army would be the most formidable in Europe.

He got paid to write this shit down. Mariupol is a miniscule city and it has been largely rebuilt by Russia DURING THE WAR. Whatever costs the Russians have to pay, they can pay. However Ukraine is in deep shit, and their government would not simply "invest" money from "friendly countries" in "development" with a crippled country lmao. How he thinks the postwar ukrainian army would be "the most formidable in Europe" is beyond me, that title would actually go to the Russian one because they won lol.

Europe: here is the crux of the matter. Ukrainians would only accept the cession of territory to Russia in exchange for security guarantees and a reasonable prospect of future prosperity. A negotiated solution to end the war would have to include Ukraine's accession to the European Union, the dream of its citizens and Putin's nightmare. That is why we must continue to arm Ukraine: so that, when the time comes to negotiate, Ukraine is in the best military conditions to insist that EU membership be an inalienable part of the plan.

Hell yeah let's keep sending helpless ukrainians to their death with our weapons so that they can join the EU afterwards. Actually, I don't think Putin gives a single fuck if Ukraine goes into the EU or not, he cares about NATO. On the other hand, I don't think the EU would want a war torn Ukraine into their ranks... better keep it outside and let companies like BlackRock ravage the area.

In fact, if this were the final outcome Putin would have lost the war. Their motive for the invasion on February 24, 2022 was the desire of the Ukrainian government to join the European club and free itself from the Russian yoke. Putin, let us remember, considers the collapse of the Soviet Union to be “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” The dictator also thinks, according to his particular reading of history, that Ukraine is “an artificial state” that belongs to the Russian sphere. It is difficult for him to think of Ukraine as an independent nation, as was seen in the grotesque interview he gave a couple of weeks ago to that parody of the journalist, the American Tucker Carlson.

Putin is right, the collapse of the USSR is the greatest catastrophe in the 20th century, could be in history even.

The interview began with a half-hour diatribe in which Putin explained that Russian sovereignty over Ukraine dates back to the 9th century. (He also explained, among other nonsense, that Poland, not Germany, caused the start of World War II...) The ultra-Trumpist Carlson had arrived in Moscow convinced, like so many more idiots on the international right and left, that Putin had invaded Ukraine to prevent NATO from invading Russia. Carlson then confessed that it came as a “shock” to him to discover that it was not true; that he had done so because of Russia's “historical claims” to Ukrainian lands.

I can tell this article is directed to argentinians because he uses the term "ultra-trumpist", which is not used in the US. The origin of the "ultra-[PERSON]" comes from Clarín calling everyone who is "bad" a "ultra-kirchnerista", due to their never-ending crusade against Kirchnerism. Also he plays the "adult in the room" card by saying that "everyone in the left and right believed Putin invaded because of NATO".

What Putin didn't tell Carlson was the other reason why he can't stand the idea of ​​Ukraine opting for the European path. He fears that such a large neighboring country, with so many cultural ties to Russia, will become a dangerous example of Western prosperity and democratic freedom for its crushed people.

Pure orientalism.

There are other possible scenarios for war in Ukraine. Let it last until Putin completes his umpteenth presidential term in 2030, or beyond. Let Russian mothers rebel, and, fed up with the carnage to which Putin subjects their children, pressure for a withdrawal of troops, as happened during the failed Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Or that there is a miracle and the Ukrainian army expels the Russian one.

Oh so Russia can't win, but neither can Ukraine.. considering their military victory is barely a "miracle".

In any case, in any imaginable or unimaginable scenario, the Russian fiasco is assured. Putin's idea was to obliterate the concept of Ukraine as a free nation and return it to its Soviet status as a submissive daughter of Mother Russia. Well no. The war has forged a nationalist sentiment never seen before in Ukraine, expressed in an infinite hatred towards the Russians.

Cool, the ukrainians embraced nazism and mr. turboliberal loves the idea.

Incidentally, far from weakening democratic Europe, a habit implanted in his brain since his days in the KGB, Putin has managed to rearm the continent and expand NATO to two more countries, Sweden and Finland. There is nothing to celebrate. Ukrainians have had to suffer a tragedy as catastrophic as it is unnecessary. But there is a prize. There is light. No one in the world - no one with half a brain - who aspires to decency and freedom will doubt from now on, and even less so after the death of the charismatic Russian opponent Alexei Navalny, that Putin and his regime represent not only the worst, but the most stupid thing in humanity.

Copium. Nobody other than six liberals care about Navalny, not even the russians themselves. On the other hand, Putin becomes more and more popular in the global south. But as always, mr. shitlib lives in a bubble called "The West".