this post was submitted on 21 Feb 2024
7 points (100.0% liked)

Geospatial

407 readers
1 users here now

Welcome to c/Geospatial @ Mander.xyz!


Notice Board

This is a work in progress, please don't mind the mess.



About

Quick Facts

Rules

  1. Don't throw mud. Be kind and remember the human.
  2. Keep it rooted (on topic).
  3. No spam.


Resources

Courses:



Similar Communities


Sister Communities

Science and Research

Biology and Life Sciences

Plants & Gardening

Physical Sciences

Humanities and Social Sciences

Memes


Find us on Reddit!

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] -2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

That rocks:

Being able to set it at +4 ( historical evidence puts us WAAAAY above that, with our current CO2-levels, alone, even while ignoring methane ),

and change it to showing number-of-days-per-year-above-40C .. and Texas, California, Brazil, ALL of Saharan Africa, some southern Africa, the Middle East, India, most of Australia, etc, turn dark red.

Looks like a bloodbath, given how we the species "deal with" such pressures with bullets fired against the lives of "other" populations..

Very interesting resource, that.

Too bad they stop it at +4, instead of accepting the historical evidence putting it higher than that.

Here's the historical-facts paper which puts us above +5C right now, without including the methane 1.3ppm to 1.4ppm ( use an 82.5x multiplication-factor to convert methane to 20y CO2 equivalent )..

They're using a powerlaw:

  • Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years

  • https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798

  • 280ppm + ( 280 * 2^(1/9) ) == +1C

  • 280ppm + ( 280 * 2^(2/9) ) == +2C

  • and so-on: a doubling of CO2 produces +9C.

with the current added-methane, you get between +8C & +9C for current-atmosphere's composition, which makes stopping-at-+4C .. idiotic.

_ /\ _

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago

This result suggests that stabilization at today’s greenhouse gas levels may already commit Earth to an eventual total warming of 5 degrees Celsius (range 3 to 7 degrees Celsius, 95 per cent credible interval) over the next few millennia as ice sheets, vegetation and atmospheric dust continue to respond to global warming.

You forgot the "over the next few millennia" part.