this post was submitted on 15 Feb 2024
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I will bet $1,000 (or $100) that this is wrong:
And this is right:
I will also bet on the behavior of an idealized flat mirror. I won't bet on whether you can actually shoot down satellites with the Ivanpah solar plant, because there are real-engineering issues that interfere with it aside from the physics of how mirrors and sunlight work.
If you want to try to chart a middle ground, I think it'd be better to talk about something actually testable than trying to argue about the real-world behavior of the Ivanpah mirrors. I'd be happy to bet $100 that:
... is wrong, as long as the mirror is flat. This one is easy to test so this might be a better bet.
NEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRDS
I care so much that I was outside earlier today, messing with my little reflective discs. It's actually really hard to get the angles right and I couldn't find a wall that was at the right type of angle to be able to test it without the reflection skewing from where the sun was, and a couple of people came near me, and clearly looked at me sort of wondering "what the hell is this guy doing."
I made no attempt to explain. Y'all can think I'm insane or whatever. I'm doing science. Get the fuck away.
But that was never the bet. The bet was about transmitting light through the atmosphere. This is just some weird little aside you got yourself tangled in. More than happy to take on a bet about the transmission power of mirrors versus lasers from space, which is what were actually discussing.
(Dug this one out of the grave because I'm trying to find another bet I just won, so was searching for "bet")