chapotraphouse

There's also the issue with China and Korea. It wasn't a guarantee that the CPC would triumph over the KMT and the point of no return for the KMT was also the time when things started popping off in Korea. Putting things in order:

• August 1945: The Soviets invaded Japanese-occupied Manchuria, where the Japanese got BTFO.

• August 1945 - May 1946: The Soviets occupied Manchuria before quietly handing it over to the CPC.

• September 1945: Japan surrendered and WWII officially ends.

• June 1946: Hostilities between the CPC and the KMT resumed.

• April 1948 to May 1949: The Jeju uprising began in the Korean island of Jeju that was organized by the WPSK.

• September-November 1948: The Liaoshen campaign was launched by the PLA and marked the point of no return for the KMT.

• October-November 1948: The Yeosu–Suncheon rebellion occurred that was also organized by the WPSK.

• June 1949: The WPSK would merge with the WPNK to form the WPK.

• August 1949: The Soviets had their first successful nuke test.

• October 1949: Mao officially proclaimed the founding of the PRC.

• December 1949: The KMT fled to Taiwan.

• June 1950: The Korean War officially begins after months of border clashes.

• September 1950: The UN joined the south after they got rekt by the Communists too many times.

• October 1950: The PVA crossed the Yalu River.

I don't think Stalin seriously blundered because at the end of the day, China is a large country with a large population population that shared a massive land border with the Soviet Union while Greece is a small country that doesn't share a land border with the Soviet Union. If you had to focus on one civil war between communists and nationalists, of course you'll focus more on the one that you share an immediate land border with.

Imagine a timeline where Greece is socialist but China is ruled by the KMT. You could pretty much kiss the DPRK goodbye and even socialist Vietnam and Laos. Maybe someone could argue the case that Stalin didn't have to worry about the CPC triumphing over the KMT and that he could've adopted a more aggressive foreign policy in Europe, but that's with the benefit of hindsight and knowing how the KMT towards the end was run by a bunch of corrupt clowns. Would someone in 1946 make the case of CPC's inevitable victory given that even Mao himself was surprised by how quickly the KMT completely folded.