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How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust: A missile scientist used mathematical models to push the nation’s one-child policy. Its legacy is proving hard to shake. (www.wsj.com)

submitted 9 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Non-paywall link

China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.

The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”

Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 9 months ago (1 children)

https://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-fable-of-the-dragon-tyrant

Your "why bother" sentiment reminds me of this

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

Sorry but as an old person myself I got tangled up in all the clutter on that link, so I missed your point whatever it was. [Edit: I read (skimmed ) the very-overwtitten story in the second link and therein lies the problem; we are still trying to extend life and have only falsehoods that pretend to extend youth. There's been no real advancement in extending youthful vigor, nor in holding onto the wisdom of experience without the physical deterioration of the mind and body.]

Me being dead doesn't bother me, it's the various unpleasant ways of getting there, and the responsibilities I have towards others. If I knew my quadriplegic family member would be cared for as well or better than I'm doing it, I'd rather go for the Big Sleep than retirement. My ancient mom has Alzheimer's and I don't want to become that kind of trial to others. I'd rather leave my money to my kids than spend it on myself, especially for healthcare.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago

We're not that incredibly far away from rejuvenation: Anti-aging pill for senior dogs is now in clinical trials.