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Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +3 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +7 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it's an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Trump +5 to +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2020-PG-no-allocations&game-view=map
Trump wins, 312 to 226.
This is a change from the last time I posted this where Trump won, 278 to 260. Michigan and Pennsylvania are both now polling for Trump instead of Biden.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Now he needs to pick up +44 which is a much, much, steeper ask...
These polls are useless too, without knowing who was surveyed (online, landlines, etc.). Also, polls this far from the election are just useless in general. Democrats are going to say they don't like Biden until it comes time to vote.
Most people remember the daily idiocy of the last time that smelly fatass was president. It's not a surprise. Democrats are going to come out and vote against Trump like they did before. They just don't care about answering polls to say they like Biden.
The same thing happened in 2020. Trump had a ton of rallies and Biden had none. Biden still kicked Trump's ass despite not being "popular".
The polling bias is more notable than ever in a world where no one under 40 answers their phones.
Eh most people under 40 aren't going to take a day off work to go vote either
Do they only poll via phone calls? I'm not a dinosaur, so Google Voice screens anybody not in contacts by asking their name. This defeats most robodialers, and having done a couple jobs which included political polls, you only get the call and poll script on your screen once the robodialer has confirmed it didn't reach a voicemail.
You'd get random campaigns based on what numbers were in the robodialer for the timezones it picked. You could be talking to some old guy who was lonely and wanted nothing more than a detailed talk about Ford trucks in between your questions about Ford's latest models, and the next call be questions such as, "if X candidate were to take a stronger position against giving free lunch to school kids, would the chance you vote for them increase, decrease, or stay the same?"
I did not last long at either job as it is soulkilling work
By tracking the polls over time you get a trend line, so far I only have 2 data points, but it will get more conclusive as things move forward.
Biden being down 10 in the EC vote was bad, but recoverable. Going from -10 to -44 is a huge problem that they need to address.
Why would Michigan of all places flip from Biden to Trump? Gee, I wonder:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/michigan-muslim-arab-leaders-cancel-meeting-biden-campaign/story?id=106720208
Pennsylvania too?
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/02/muslim-americans-swing-states-anti-biden-campaign
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/muslim-americans-face-abandon-biden-dilemma-then-who-2023-12-02/
"Muslim Americans said they did not expect Trump to treat their community any better if reelected but saw denying Biden votes their only means to shape U.S. policy.
A recent poll showed Biden's support among Arab Americans has plunged from a comfortable majority in 2020 to 17%."