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this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2024
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Lol. If that's the level of political analysis Biden is gaming on, then he's gonna fail just like Hilary.
The name of the game is knowing your base and getting high voter turnout.
The Republicans understand this. I hope the Democrats don't forget it like they did in 2016.
I mean, even a significant majority of 18-24 year olds supports Israel, and half of them don't vote, even in normal years. About 28% of voters who disapprove of Biden's handling of this situation actually think he's too supportive of Palestine, and independents are more supportive of Israel than registered Democrats The demographic with the highest turnout rate supports Israel over Palestine by a 6 to 1 margin.
So yeah, the youth vote is absolutely critical if he hopes to win reelection, and turnout is a significant part of that, but the opinion of the youth, and further the opinion of the thin sliver of young people here on Lemmy, does not accurately reflect the opinion of the broader voting electorate. The fact is, people here care WAY more about the Israeli conflict than most of the rest of the country.
You are still thinking that winning elections is about convincing the center.
That was true up to about 2008.
Now, in the US, it's about turning up the base.
Your analysis is weak, and pandering to the elderly is not going to be a winning strategy.
Up until now, Biden has been smarter than that. And I have some faith he will find a winning strategy.
But an analysis like this will only lead to losing.
No, I'm saying elections are about convincing likely voters. And with Biden's continued edge with independents, I might be right. Others who have done deep dives into the data agree with me, too. Clinton had a 30-point edge in the 18-29 demographic and exactly the same support in the 30-49 demographic, which means she did better among younger voters than Biden, and she still lost.
Oh piss off. Yours is infantile and naive, and you're not even a voter. People stop taking you seriously when you make this shit personal, and your sentence would have conveyed the same meaning without the invective.
Nope, but pandering to likely voters might be. 68% of Jewish voters said they'll vote Biden over Trump, and only 11% were undecided. Hell, even Bernie won't call for a cease fire. And there's a stupid amount of money that gets thrown at any Democrat who steps out of line to criticize Israel. Might depressed youth/base turnout lose him the election? Sure. Might also alienating a very powerful (and wealthy) ally who could further depress turnout among a hitherto reliable voting bloc? You fucking betcha.
Like what? Surveying likely voters? I pointed to actual poll numbers. The numbers are there if you care to look, and they're likely the same numbers Biden's team is reviewing to chart the best path forward in an election year.
The fact that you seem so unwaveringly sure of yourself without a shred of evidence makes me significantly less inclined to engage, by the way. I might not respond further, so if you don't want to waste your time formulating another quippish, vapid response, don't.
I think it's better you don't respond. It's not particularly productive to read your bad takes.
You put way too much effort in providing links instead of actually thinking.
Removed, rule 3:
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (perjorative, perjorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (perjorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect!
Lol, devolving to ad hominems.
Good night.
I mean, this IS the popular message. It isn't true, but it is the popular message, regularly amplified by the far left and the GOP alike.
The reality of Biden is that he's repeatedly pushed and campaigned for student loan debt forgiveness and has accomplished a great deal on that front even against a corrupt and entrenched conservative judicial apparatus preventing it. He's put a largely-young, massively diverse set of people in charge of the levers of the administrative state. He somehow got passed through a hostile congress the biggest piece of climate legislation ever, in the entire world. He got a huge consensus infrastructure bill passed, too, which in spite of its vast scope has someone gone COMPLETELY under the radar politically -- an accomplishment in its own right. He's had, frankly, a very successful term, all things considered. Better-liked presidents have done far less.
I'm not at all happy with the administration's words as far as the war on Palestine goes, but the oversimplifications aren't saving any lives over there either. And in terms of actual actions being taken... I've yet to hear someone make a convincing practical argument for what we could do to end the conflict and protect lives, setting aside all the discussions of pure ethics that these conversations usually are.
Similarly, I think it is damn time we get serious about supreme court reform. The institution is corrupt and has been for a very long time -- mostly always. But I am not going to say he's a total failure when he doesn't do it. It's morally right to do it. It should be done. Anyone who says otherwise is a fool or a bastard. And I know Biden won't because it would end him, politically, and the other progress is good and worthy of maintaining.
I'm inclined to agree, but I also don't know that a lack of munitions would definitely lead to less killing -- Israel is a nuclear state, after all, and they seem very inclined to murder Palestinians. A worse-armed Israel might conceivably be even more indiscriminate (as hard to imagine as that is), and I've not sat in those JCS or whatever meetings to know what the rational is.
Maybe Biden is just genuinely prescribing his pro-Israel political opinions on the entire foreign policy. That doesn't seem too likely, given that he's Mr. Compromise.
Maybe the foreign policy really is just that entrenched in orthodoxy. That always seemed most probable to me, that the idea of in any way blinking in the support is just unimaginable to the top State and actual brass.
Maybe the situation has more complex concerns than any of us know. That's pretty much certain.
As it is, I think Biden deserves heavy criticism for this foreign policy. It's more than just a bad look. Aiding and abetting a genocide is not acceptable, full stop. But the idea that he's not just failing to adequately stand up to it, but is indeed the cause of it is absurd, and either way one bad policy move shouldn't completely wash away all the other progress -- even though it does for so many people.
Personally, I like that he's being protested like this. I just wish the conversation would stop ink-washing his entire term, obviating everything good that has happened. He's not JUST the alternative to Trump. The IRA alone gives plenty of reason to earn a vote.
At least if we weren't giving them weapons and money I wouldn't feel culpable as an American. My vote went to Biden and now the blood of Palestinian children is on my hands, as it is all of us who voted for him.
They are just too stuck in their ways. I think that's what it is. The political class in the US has been staunchly supporting Israel for decades without any push back through the fog of "it's complicated" for oil and military presence.
But now that I and other Americans have looked into the situation there and the history, we can't un-learn it. It's the burden of knowledge. Now I understand why the UN and human rights organizations are always telling Israel to tone it down. He needs to at least stop helping them, at least show some backbone as Israel slaps us in our face as we politely ask if they can do a "two state solution, pretty please. Or kill less children pleeeese? "
This country is terrible. I hope something better rises out of the ashes and not just another huge authoritarian country like Russia.
Why is the blood on your hands? For voting for the guy who was less keen on killing Palestinians?
Do you forget that Trump intentionally and actively stirred the pot in the region? That he aligned himself with Bibi, not just Israel, because he likes tinpot dictators? Moved the embassy to Jerusalem just to stir shit up and make it messy? Appointed his son-in-law Jared Kushner in charge of peace negotiations because getting his special boy a cushy job mattered more than protecting life?
What could you have possibly done differently to protect life over there? Any other choice you would've made would've been a worse outcome for the region. THEN you would be culpable.
A vote is not some deep sign of moral commitment to the candidate. Get over yourself if you think it is. Votes are a commodity. You spend it to affect change. You don't always get great value on your money, but you have to min max.
Trump is definitely worse, but Biden is still not great on this issue and theoretically represents the voters because he was elected. That is, if we were a proper democracy, which I don't think we are as much as I used to. There's not enough choice. Which is kind of ironic because we love to brag about being a democracy and force it on other countries.
This whole thing has made me understand anti-abortion voters.
Sometimes you see something that is so fucking horrific that you can not support anyone who is supporting it.
I was against killing innocents when we did it and I still am.
I keep hearing about how I am supposed to be more conservative as I age, but the older I get the more radical, I am becoming.
At what point do we just burn the system down for supporting this kind of shit?
The war is fucking coming either way, I’d rather it be now, so I can fight it instead of my kids.
If we start a major world conflict right now I'm sure it will create sufficient distraction from climate change that your kids won't have anything to fight over.
Which is kind of back to my thesis -- respect and acknowledge the IRA. It's good shit that anyone who voted for Biden, even if it was just as a vote for "not Trump", should be proud of it. Demanding more like it.
It's fine, these peoples' conscience will be clean and that's all that matters. To them.
I mean, they shouldn't be clean as their non-action will just result in far more Palestinian bloodshed. But that's not what matters to them. As long as they don't have to feel bad about it and can say "well I didn't vote for Trump or Biden, so I didn't vote for genocide"
You're a stupid motherfucker. Remember this comment when Trump wins because idiots like you. You will not get to say that what comes next isn't on you.
You think things are bad in Gaza now? Just wait. Voting for someone that just ensures a Trump win doesn't absolve you.
How many actual genocide did Trump pull off?
0?
Seems like only one of them has actually supported genocide.
That said, I can’t wait until his grave is a public toilet
Young people don't vote and young people aren't what helped biden win last time. They can continue not to vote and it won't hurt biden.
Biden had historical turnout from young people. I think it was more based on Trump hate but still they helped. But you're right, they're a notoriously unreliable voting base.
Is that true? I thought they didn't end up showing up even though everyone thought they were. Maybe I a disillusioned by them not showing up for Bernie vs Biden in the last primary.
I mean, it's a low bar but it does seem to be true. Wish they would be more reliable, though -_- Especially during primaries