https://www.axios.com/2024/01/07/trump-ballot-remove-14th-amendment-map

Currently 19 different states working to disqualify Trump from the ballot, although it appears that Sec State of California has refused to pull the trigger (shame, really, because that would have been funny af). He's potentially going to be excluded from Nevada because of filing deadlines (so, presumably, someone ratfucked him in the clerk's office). The South Carolina SC is deciding whether to keep him on the ballot right now.

Cannot be overemphasized how fucked the Iowa Causus system is in practice, either. Just ask Bernie Sanders.

It isn't inconceivable that enough dirty tricks get pulled to send the GOP to a contested convention. But if he's just allowed to compete in a heads-up contest, he wins in a landslide, yeah.