this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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I am not sure the OGL debacle is really a reason. There is I don't know how many thousands RPG published each years. If I do a search on kicksrarter for RPG in boardgame category I get above 6000 matches.
So tons of new RPG are being published each day, most of them are forgotten, some are good enough to drag a small but existing community, and may-be a dozen of games are big enough to provide a living revenue to their authors, while one game per decade really change the way we play (Basically D&D, Chtulhu, Vampire, Fate, Apocalypse world) so not sure there is something new under the sun.
The D&D player will keep playing D&D, the non D&D player will keep not playing it, and with the marketing power of Hasbro will keep having a long time telling beginner that there is more than just D&D or that tweaking D&D into a horror games where weak humans face cosmic error takes more work than buying COC
I don't think that's true about dnd staying in dnd. Just that it takes time to transition away.
In both of the tables I play in, none of us are buying any new WOTC stuff. We're finishing up existing campaigns, and we have a (fairly last minute) 3rd party 5e Xmas one shot coming because we don't want to force anyone to have to learn a new system for it.
But we're already branching out into PBTA and the more DM and leadership focused of us already have pathfinder 2e books and everyone is on board with trying pf2e.
Plenty of D&D players both staying and leaving. But there is definitely an impact because there are some whales leaving.