this post was submitted on 24 Nov 2023
148 points (100.0% liked)
TechTakes
1490 readers
36 users here now
Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.
For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
There is an institute of virology in Wuhan, but it is most likely that Covid-19 spread naturally from bats to humans.
Bat coronaviruses are common in the South China - Thailand - Myanmar region, and viruses jump host species all the time.
Labs that handle human pathogens are maintained under very high security. The one in Wuhan is BSL4, the highest security rating, and had prior experience handling coronaviruses. Also, the viruses themselves would be marked with radioactive isotopes. Even if they somehow got out of the building, it would be possible to find and quarantine all those exposed to it.
If it was released on purpose, then we can narrow the list of suspects down to the countries that can reliably make bioweapons and antidotes with close to 100% certainty. That's the US, China and maybe Russia. The US and Russia were among the worst affected, and China wouldn't have released the virus in China.
So the most likely explanation is that it is a bat virus that jumped hosts.
Is that true? Once the virus replicated in a cell, the new copies wouldn't be tagged, right?
The new ones wouldn't. But the original radioactive atoms would still be in your body, and they can be detected (within a reasonable amount of time).
Edit: But if the new viruses infect another person, they wouldn't have the radioactivity. So usually, in case of a leak, the plan would be to quarantine anyone exposed to the viruses (as detected by radioactivity) and anyone who has been with them that day.
For the lab leak theory to work you have to assume not only that some workers at the lab got infected, but also that they spread it all over the city before anybody noticed, such that by the time anyone did notice, they were several degrees of contact from the lab workers.
@emergencyfood @Evinceo Naw. People have some radioactive atoms in their bodies all the time. But the viruses are marked in another way: they have particular genetic sequences. And with the march of technology the Wuhan Institute of Virology would have sequenced the viruses they were studying and been able to compare the sequences on file with the Covid-19 pathogen.
You don't know that. Nobody knows that, because China destroyed all the evidence. If this was true, they could have proved it, they could have shown the world! "Behold our innocence!!" Why didn't that happen?
One (simpler) explanation is that proving an absence of something is almost impossible, and that attempting too hard would make them look a heck of a lot guilty.
There is a good reason why the burden of evidence is “innocent until proven guilty”, and yes this extends to the (in your eyes) untrustworthy.
Prove to me you never stole candy from a store as a child (or if you did, replace that accusation with any item of higher value until you hit something you did not steal)
There is also the whole 'why would we have to prove anything? We are fucking China!' stance all big hegemonic countries have.
It's not just big hegemonic countries in general but specifically the particularly image-obsessed character of geopolitics in East Asia. Mianzi is a real concern in Chinese diplomacy.
lmao, if you don't have evidence for X, you don't have evidence that X is being suppressed. You just lack evidence.
The communities pushing "COVID was a lab leak" the hardest are demonstrably not cured by evidence.
nope fuck off
Yes, but we can reason based on what we know.
Most likely the municipality were trying to cover up corruption in the regulation of the wet markets. Maybe they ignored health and safety laws in return for bribes, and didn't want that to come out.