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Apple Weather's forecasts are so bad my meteorologist made a post about it (spacecityweather.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Apple Weather forecasts for my area have shown a 30-50% chance of precipitation for eternity, even when there isn't a cloud in sight. My meteorologist has told his readers to ignore Apple's forecasts.

This started around the time the Apple Weather outages a few months ago and haven't improved. YSK that you can report inaccurate forecasts from within the app, but it hasn't improved for me.

I'm currently using Foreca on iPhone and the free version of Carrot on Apple Watch.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

“Meteorologists aren’t in agreement on how to measure the Probability of Precipitation, aka that little percentage of rain on your weather app. Some use a formula for it — PoP = C x A, where C stands for confidence and A stands for area. So if there’s a 50% chance of rain in 80% of a given area, your probability of rain becomes 40%.

More commonly, meteorologists measure PoP as the chance of rain at any given point in the area they cover during a certain period of time. This is the definition closest to the official definition from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”

Source: https://www.tasteofhome.com/article/percent-chance-of-rain/

It’s likely Apple does something unique in how they calculate their percentages. It could legit be a fault in how they source their weather data but knowing more about the actual equation might be helpful in seeing if everyone is actually measuring the same thing, the same way.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

Here's the thing: Apple is reporting a 30% possibility of rain in an area where no other weather model projects anything over 0%. It sent my kid's school into a frenzy because they were having an outdoor graduation and there was literally no chance that rain was going to fall. None.