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Your #3 option is the most likely, but don't entirely rule out #2 yet, particularly if Johnson sees the same fate as Jordan. The folks who voted against Jordan got savaged by the Right Wing media, and it's entirely possible they've earned wacko primary challenges regardless of what they do next. Some of them are from competitive districts that voted for Biden in 2020. So from the perspective of their political futures, after voting against two arch-Conservatives they may feel like they can't depend on Republican Party support anymore, and have a better chance running as an Independant in a 3-way race.
Any current Republican who decides to work with Democrats is effectively leaving the party, given how Republicans operate now. But these folks may feel like their political futures are better off if they disassociate from the Republicans, particularly if they get better committee assignments out of it, and Democrats don't run strong candidates against them in the next election.
Given how they were treated after voting down Jordan, I would think this would make them more likely to just cave in and vote for whoever the MAGA wing vomits up next. We already have multiple insiders from the party confirming that multiple members have voted MAGAs way out of literal fear for their own safety or the safety of their families, up to the point where this is what probably saved Trump from being the first President to be removed from office. It's why I said #3 is most likely. The moderates will cave either out of exhaustion, frustration, or fear. Or all of the above.
Any current Republican who decides to work with Democrats is effectively leaving the party and will receive countless death threats as a result. Look at what just happened with Jordan. The political suicide of working with Dems may be the least of their problems at that point. Some of these people may feel they're in a position where voting MAGA may be their only viable option to not only save their political careers but ensure their own and family's safety as well. Their choices really are boiling down to "Vote MAGA", "Commit Political Suicide", and "Commit political suicide and be forced to hire a security detail for your family for the foreseeable future."
If these people do this, though (and again, it's not likely to happen), it will be because they are representing districts that are not as far down the MAGA rabbit hole, and they are making the political calculation that they would be better off that way. This includes taking the threats into account, but they may be representing districts where the MAGA is a minority, and more importantly, they trust local and state law enforcement to protect them.
It is fitting that Republicans refer to their internal groups as the "Five Families", becauwe they really are being run like Mafia families, with all the threats and intimidation that implies.