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The Numbers That Killed Draft Boosters (cardboardbythenumbers.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Incredibly comprehensive overview of the sales figures and other considerations that went into WOTC replacing draft and set boosters with the new play boosters.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Yes, it comes with 16% more booster packs than a normal Set box, but there is a (reasonable) psychological reaction long-time players will have to seeing the typical box price go for nearly 50% more than what they’ve been paying for the last 15 years, no matter the promise of extra rares, foils, and “Special Guest” cards to help ease that pain.

I think this is the real issue. Ever since Urza's Saga, I've been expecting and happy to pay about $90 for a booster box. I honestly don't care a ton about reselling the cards, but the $90 price was not that hard to stomach.

Raising the price to $150 makes me not really interested anymore. I had a hard time justifying the set booster box, but I would buy those because they came with fewer commons which I would "throw out" anyway. Set boosters were better to buy because they came with less chaff.

But now I feel way less inclined to buy them for some reason, and I think it's because the price is just too high. They could cram packs of 15 rares and charge the same scaled cost but that makes me even less interested. This feels similar to the 30th edition mistake where they thought there was no ceiling to what people would spend if the "EV" was good. Well it turns out the aftermarket EV is directly related to the demand for the boosters/boxes.

Will demand drop for these Play Boosters? I can't see MORE people drafting now, and I can't see MORE people spending 50% more for a booster box that's not a whole lot different than the Set Boosters before. If the demand drops for the boxes, that will hurt the aftermarket value for the cards and if the resale value of the cards is not higher than the box price, they could effectively kill the market for their boosters.

My take is that it's directly in line with their overall strategy -- generate more income. They're not worried about the state or future of the game because they have no direct competitor. As soon as a competitor arises that fills the gaps left from destroying the old game, I believe the "bank run" will commence and you will see people exiting the market.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Are you really paying $90 for a draft booster box? I've already been paying more like $120 or $130, not including tax or shipping.

If we assume prices are going up by 50%, I guess that means I'll be paying $180 - $200 now. Steep, to be sure. But I buy three or four boxes a year, and I'm mostly doing it to support my LGS, so the actual price is sort of a secondary concern. I don't love it, but I don't think it'll break the bank.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

I was actually still getting them for $92 shipped as a pre-order a few sets ago, but I think you could still get them for $100 in the last set.

You're right that it's a good way to support the LGS but it's going to definitely reduce my spending.