this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2023
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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Location: Southern Germany. Anomalous heat season broken, first night frost. Firewood even more expensive this year, now up to 160 EUR/m^3 . Natural gas and electricity will jump higher sooner than expected due to tax breaks ending, probably by end of the year. Economy is in recession, particularly any energy intensive industry. Lots of migrants, which are taxing municipalities' finances. Worst: absolutely no improvement in sight.
On the positive side, 400 Wp photovoltaics modules are down to 100 EUR, kWh scale storage batteries also much cheaper and inverters also somewhat. 80+% autarky for off-grid is no longer prohibitively expensive.
Wind power doesn't scale for domestic size installations. My solar PV is at 2 kWp at the moment, and I'm planning to add some 10 kWh battery storage in a year or two. Grid-tied but insular capable, it would flatten the PV production peak and be an insurance against potential load shedding events.
I'm using microinverters which are grid-tied, they stop prodicing AC power when the grid goes down, for safety reasons. I will move these to the AC branch of the battery backed Victron modular system (building that in 1-2 years) which is island-capable, so that part requires no modification.
The problem with residential wind is that it never EROIs due to physics scaling. You need MW scale facilities in suitable locations to EROI.
There is some small use case from DIY wind systems made from recycled components in coastal areas, since these are complementary to PV and can improve the duty cycle of backup diesel in insular installations. No point in that for grid-tied setups.