this post was submitted on 11 Oct 2023
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The current breed of generative "AI" won't 'die out'. It's here to stay. We are just in the early Wild-West days of it, where everyone's rushing to grab a piece of the pie, but the shine is starting to wear off and the hype is juuuuust past its peak.
What you'll see soon is the "enshittification" of services like ChatGPT as the financial reckoning comes, startup variants shut down by the truckload, and the big names put more and more features behind paywalls. We've gone past the "just make it work" phase, now we are moving into the "just make it sustainable/profitable" phase.
In a few generations of chips, the silicon will have made progress in catching up with the compute workload, and cost per task will drop. That's the innovation to watch out for now, who will de-throne Nvidia and its H100?
This is why I, as a user, am far more interested in open-source projects that can be run locally on pro/consumer hardware. All of these cloud services are headed down the crapper.
My prediction is that in the next couple years we'll see a move away from monolithic LLMs like ChatGPT and toward programs that integrate smaller, more specialized models. Apple and even Google are pushing for more locally-run AI, and designing their own silicon to run it. It's faster, cheaper, and private. We will not be able to run something as big as ChatGPT on consumer hardware for decades (it takes hundreds of gigabytes of memory at minimum), but we can get a lot of the functionality with smaller, faster, cheaper models.
Wait, you guys don't already have hundreds of gigabytes of memory?
Don't worry about the RAM. Worry about the VRAM.
Google drive is my swap space