He's consolidated the military under the MoD umbrella,

Has he? He lost capable military leaders from Wagner, and those forced to fight alongside Russian troops fight now alongside troops which bombed them before. I hardly imagine there is much trust or comrades between Russian military and Wagner troops.

his comradery with Lukashenko likely improved,

It strengthened Lukashenko.

the West is admitting that Ukraine is running out of ammo (thus the cluster ammunition)

... which has nothing to do with the attempted coup

and he (or rather Lukashenko) has a strong private army close to the Ukrainian border, about 90km from Kiev

It really depends if that army still fights for Putin. The smear-campaign against Prigozhin wouldn't make sense in this scenario.

Putin looks like messing about, trying to make the best of the situation, with no clear plan. He looks weak, and maybe worse, plan-less.