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this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2023
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I'm in Virginia, which is pretty purple. That said, we have open primaries, but you are only allowed to vote in one. I have seriously considered voting in the Republican Primary for that reason. Biden is going to win any sort of Democratic Primary; so, not much point voting in the DNC Primary. However, I don't expect my vote would be impactful at all. Southwest Virginia has Trump's cock so far down it's collective throat it stopped being oral and started being anal. Even where I'm at, we have idiots whose yards have been decorated with Trump banners for over 7 years now. If he doesn't win the GOP Primary in Virginia, I'll be incredibly surprised.
If I do go out to vote in the GOP Primary, I'd probably have to pick Haley, just for the fun of seeing Republicans lining up behind a woman for a reason other than groping her. Also, I think it would be hilarious to see leftist pundits twist themselves in knots dealing with the GOP having a relatively younger woman and a minority as their candidate versus the old white guy. But, with her currently polling well behind DeSantis and a very, very distant third to Trump, I suspect that has basically zero chance of happening.
To be fair, didn't Trump poll horribly at first?
Kinda. Early in the 2016 election cycle, Jeb Bush was sort leading the pack. But, by October 2015 (to compare with the current cycle), Trump was pulling ahead in the GOP Primary and held onto the lead for the rest of the Primary. He was helped, a lot, by the large GOP Primary field and lack of a clear front runner. The political environment in 2016 also favored populism and Trump tapped into that very well.
Now, this could all get upended by the various criminal charges Trump faces. While the civil charges he is liable for are interesting, that's not a real impediment to his campaign. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up helping him, as he will spin it as a politically motivated attack on him by the left. But, should Trump end up behind bars during the run up to the Primary or General election, that's going to make campaigning a bit harder. It won't be impossible, and I'm not entirely confident it would prevent him from winning the Primary or the General Election. Though, I would think that the GOP might find a way to replace him on the General Election ballot, were he behind bars.