A level 5 rogue will quite probably have a thievery dc of 13, if they invest in it and max dex. The average lock has a dc of 25 and requires 4 successes. It takes a roll of 12 or better to have a single success, and will average about 9 rolls to rack up those 4 successes. With 9 rolls wherein you crit fail on a 2 or lower, the likelihood of breaking a pick is ~61%.
Should a level 5 rogue take a minute to open the average lock, and more likely than not break a pick in the process?
And let's look at a good Lock: DC 30, requiring 5 successes. The level 5 rogue will only succeed on a 17, meaning it will take on average 20 attempts to get those 5 successes. On one attempt in a thousand our Lvl 5 rogue will open this lock before breaking a pick, and will typically break 3 in the process.
Am I missing something?
To me the time requirement looks fine. There is examples of super skilled people on YouTube who can pick good locks in less time than a round in pf, but they obviously are legendary.
My issue is the chance to break picks. That part seems unrealistic (even for a fantasy world) and it just add something to keep track of in a "video game" style.
My other issue is that from a gameplay perspective, if there is no ongoing fight and we are not in encounter mode, I don't see at all the point to make so many rolls and require several successes. I would be more inclined to a system with a lower DC and where the difference between your roll and a dc determine the time you spend to open it. I am kind of homebrewing it this way in my campaign, but I was not very consistent with my ruling for this ... I should think about it and write it somewhere.
In the end, if your players agree to a little homebrew, it's up to the GM to tweak the rules to fit the story. Are they trying to pick a lock while being chased with enemies dozen of meters behind ? Then it's important to clearly define how many rounds are needed and I would make a check per rounds. Otherwise, if they are calmly trying to open something without stress and with all the tools required, just make one check and determine the time spend (if it's relevant) from the result.
Are they in a dire situation with only one precious pick and without possibility to find more ? Then it's important to follow the rules to break it, otherwise just handwave it.
Isn't that why old editions of D&D let you take 20 on a lot of out-of-combat things? I'm still not sure why that was removed from both D&D and Pathfinder.
Exactly. Take 20 when there is no consequence of failure and plenty of time. Take 10 when there is plenty of time and no stresfull environment.