this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2023
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Why should anybody believe people who have been studying geopolitics all their lives is the question you're asking?
Unlike you guzzling propaganda out of a firehose, I am watching the actual developments on the ground. The developments are that Ukraine failed to reach even the first line of Russian defence after a month long offensive while suffering horrific losses. Those are the facts of the situation. The fact that you don't understand this says volumes.
Just because you study something doesn't mean you magically know the future. Stop following "experts" and form your own opinion
People who study things have the best idea of what's likely to happen in the future by virtue of spending the time to understand the domain they study. Maybe if you spend the time learning about the subjects you opine on then you too will be able to make a coherent argument in the future. Consider doing that instead of trolling on internet forums.
No, even if you study all your life, it won't let you predict the future. People study stocks all their lives and they still can't beat a simple stock index in the long term. So stop listening to articles that make wrong predictions.
Like Mearshimer who in 2014 predicted Putin had no further territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Yet Putin annexed further regions in Ukraine, despite this "expert" studying stuff.
If you don't understand how expertise allows people to make better decisions than people without any experience in the subject there's really nothing else to tell you. Good news is I don't have to convince you of anything, the reality is going to become clear even to you soon enough.
I'm questioning his expertise. Every time he says "Russia wouldn't do that" Russia does it. And he is still considered an expert despite several claims of how Russia:
At this point, you just have to say he's gotten everything wrong, but continues to double down
I mean you certainly sound like an expert on the subject qualified to question his expertise. I also love how you disingenuously ignore the context of what he said and when he said it as if the state of the world has not changed over time. You're free to live in whatever fantasies you want, but sooner or later you are going to have to reconcile them with the real world.
Mearsheimer is not a military expert, so he has no idea how the war will turn out. Even if we accept he's an expert on politics, the actual situation on the ground will affect the future more. I'd rather listen to what generals say
U.S. Lt. Col. Alex Vershinin retired after 20 years of service, including eight years as an armor officer with four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and 12 years working as a modeling and simulations officer in NATO and U.S. Army concept development and experimentation is a military expert though, and he gives a pretty similar assessment https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/whats-ahead-war-ukraine
RAND also seems to disagree with you https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html CSIS isn't painting a pretty picture either https://www.csis.org/analysis/empty-bins-wartime-environment-challenge-us-defense-industrial-base
Not really sure which generals you're listening too, but I haven't seen a single serious military person say anything even remotely close to what you seem to think is happening.
This is all old articles. Of course, the trajectories put out there are the same, but you need to follow what's happening on the ground
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7-2023
What's possible and not possible will be shown this summer.
ISW is not a serious publication. It's a neocon think tank that consistently got everything wrong from the start. If that's what you've been referencing then I see why you're confused. Meanwhile, we already see what's possible and not possible given that Ukrainian offensive has ground to a halt and failed to make any meaningful progress in around a month now. If you can't understand what an utter disaster this is from Ukrainian perspective then I really don't know what else to tell you. This summer will indeed clarify a lot of things for people.