AN/FPS-24 Radar Tower, Mt. Umunhum, Los Gatos, CA, 2024.
Several additional pixels at https://www.flickr.com/photos/mattblaze/53796724938
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this post was submitted on 05 Jan 2025
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Students in my class play a simple game called the escalation game which I started a couple of years back after physicist Max Tegmark claimed there was a 1/6 chance of a nuclear war starting over Ukraine.
The first time we played we had 1/7 teams end in nuclear war. This year half of the teams ended with a nuclear war.
It's more about the competitive nature of the players than a real estimate of any probability of course.
It was very convenient that the first year my boss was in the class and I was being evaluated for my teaching abilities and we got 1/7 vs. Tegmark's 1/6. Phew!
See Ellsberg's book The Doomsday Machine.
PS Most estimates of the annual probability are lower, generally below 1% but of course not zero.