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Chinese economy expected to have slipped into deflation as recovery falters
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2023
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Using the word "deflation" like it's a bad thing for citizens to be able to afford the things they need to live. That's capitalist propaganda for you. We're only happy when the blessedly wealthy get to have a good life.
You don’t see how it’s a bad thing for people to have zero incentive to put money back into the economy? Everyone hoarding money and trying to spend as little as possible will surely have good results!
People still need things, just because their money is getting more valuable doesn't mean they're gonna skip this weeks groceries, the next haircut, car repairs, etc. This isn't a problem that's going to grind an economy to a halt, especially a command economy. The more worrying thing for China I'd imagine would be the total exports dropping which is also supposedly happening.
That grocer likely has loans which are now much more expensive in real terms. Same with the farmer who sells their goods to the grocer. The manufacturer of parts to repair cars also has them. With deflation, all of them bring in less money but have increased real costs. So they cut costs by paying workers less or more likely laying them off. It's good for banks though. They have loans out that now get amazing returns and can simply stop loaning money out because just having the money sit their provides a pretty good return.
It's hilarious to see: Most Capitalists (or atleast those who are not actively opposing fossil fuel industry) complain about Doomers for the climate, but the moment the line stops going up you guys become Doomers yourself.
I have seen how capitalists scream when the line stops going up. But I never see capitalists suggest changes to how the economy is setup to avoid this phenomenon. I don't trust people who can't be objective when their baby has made a booboo.
I’m not even sure what you’re taking about it. But from the worker/anti capitalist perspective, deflation is even worse. The working class, who holds huge amounts of debt like student loans, ends up paying more as the value of money decreases. Imagine all of your student debts increasing in real value over time, on top of the already existing interest rate.
So long as unemployment stays relatively stable, deflation might be a good thing for us. If unemployment rises significantly as a result of deflation, then the discounts we'd get might not be worth the lost income. Since employers control employment in the lack of unions, they hold the power to remove income from workers to offset the falling profits that result from deflation. I wouldn't mind extra deflation if I lived in a union country.
Youth unemployment is already really high in China. With deflation, you could expect unemployment to also rise in other age groups.
Deflation is a bad thing. It also doesn't necessarily mean things get more affordable for people.
It's a serious issue and is not good for the country or the people in the country.
In fact it's usual that the central banks main goal is to stop deflation. That's why central banks are usually separated from government policy also. Deflation is such a huge concern the central bank can overrule the wishes of the government and put in measures that will lead to a recession. Deflation is worse than recessions.
Economics is a lot more complicated than all the memes on this website of. Capitalism bad, communism good.
In theory. In reality and for the wealthy, the average person is fucked either way today.
Only somebody ate up with the cancerous ideology of capitalism would say something so ignorant. I'm sorry, son. You're terminal.
It's not my fault you don't like something you don't understand. That's true ignorance. Try educating yourself. Go watch a YouTube video or something on why deflation is bad.
Not the OP you were talking to, but I have to object to what you say is ignorance, even though you might be saying it about OP specifically. You probably think everybody thinks of deflation like this.
Deflation is bad -> I believe this is true. But that's not the point.
The current economy is setup this way to make anything other than rampant consumerism and aggressive capitalism a country-destroying phenomenon -> This is what irks people. The rich and powerful have setup a shitty rube-goldberg machine that makes their lives better at the expense of the commonfolk, environment, and everybody else's sanity.
I get your point. But I see what you have said as two independent points.
The way the world is set up deflation is a bad thing, pretty unanimously.
But unrelenting capitalism is a bad thing I agree. But it's separate. Is kind of like saying "we need to get better at football by kicking the ball better" but then saying "the game is stupid you should be able to use your hands". I agree the game is stupid but I wouldn't disagree in the rules of football being better and kicking makes you better at the game, even if the rules should be changed.
Me personally. I have a degree in economics and I don't see governments or international relationships working without a strong basis on capitalism. But I also agree that the system is at a point where capitalism has created enough wealth in the economy something needs to be fundamentally changed. People should work less, spend less (but buy better quality, reparable products), have more community, correct the market this strong externalities and even maybe UBI.
But I'm not celebrating depreciation and reduced consumer spending because the world we are in that means it's a bad thing.
Maybe you should worry about your steady diet of bootleather before you worry about me.
It's a bad thing because the economy slows down and companies have less income, which means less pay for the workers.
Yer it wont trickle down!
Companies have been making record profits for years and wages have stagnated, which means less pay for workers.
But they won't because people are expecting prices to drop even more. Food and necessities, sure, it's kinda nice this month for that, but washing machines, a new TV? Better next month. And then the next. And then you don't have a job any more because you're working at a washing machine factory and nobody's buying them and the economy is going under.
Deflation being bad is one of those (rare) instances where mainstream economics actually is right. Of course inflation is bad, too, but there's a reason central banks tend to set targets just a percent or two into inflation: That's way better than risking deflation.
I don't know if deflation itself is that harmful or if it's just a symptom of economic troubles, i.e. lack of demand. In any case, if it persists, that's not a good outlook for the Chinese economy.
Both, it's a positive feedback loop, and in the end it doesn't really matter what started it once the economy crashes you've gone through multiple lack of demand -> prices fall -> even more lack of demand iterations.
"positive" as in engineering, not as in good
The current rounds of layoffs in the last couple years have noting to do with people not buying washing machines from the washing machine factory... It has to do with the washing machine CEO saying that we have too sell 200% MORE washing machines this year compared to last OR we're going to call that "nobody's buying washing machines".
You're quoting theory while ignoring the failed reality around you.
No washing machine factory has lost any money, they just didn't make as much profit as they hoped for - even then, plenty of them are seeing record profits and still doing layoffs and raising prices to consumers artificially to exploit the pandemic profiteering moment and juice their stock price.
What I described is independent of CEO behaviour. It's also not actually about washing machines, it's about money needing to circulate and consumers not consuming stopping that. How China got itself into the situation is irrelevant, what matters, on the business side, is the sudden lack of liquidity as the company's source of income dries up while costs (wages, anything fixed even if you shut down production) continue.
What you say about CEOs might be true -- but then China is a command economy. It could just order CEOs to cut the shit. The comrades in the central committee, in all their wisdom, apparently only want to harden the Chinese people against hardship that's why they're crashing the economy it is for the betterment of the nation and the success of socialism.
We don't have alternative jobs in 2023! Everyone whose not a millionaire or richer needs to get their asses on the factory floor!
Yeah because I totally was talking about washing machines.
Your employer also makes less which means a lay off or reduced pay. It's good for banks though since they make good returns on existing loans and do not have to lend it any new money to see good returns. Glad you want things to be good for bankers.
That only applies when the employer isn't riding high on the profits of price gouging and wage theft. Bankers and CEO can lick the dirt off the bottom of my shoes before I grant them an ounce of compassion.
No, that applies to all fucking business. Grocers, for instance, make very little off what they sell. Farmers make an even smaller profit margin. Hitting them across the board with lower revenue while their fixed costs are still largely the same is a recipe for them going under and the bank seizing the assets.
Calling for deflation is literally having compassion for bankers. So good on you, mate. Keep on licking the boots of those bankers.
The only way anybody could be this ignorant and think they're the good guy is if they're a bad faith actor. Fuck all the way off.
You're the one calling for helping out the fucking banks via deflation, you dunce.
They are calling out the system entirely, you have just missed that point and tried to jump on a 'gotcha'.
I agree with you. These capitalists spit on climate activists calling them doomers and even worse terms. But the moment someone suggests that it's ok when the line doesn't have to go up always... it's pitchfork time.
Unless China's mode of production changes very quickly, deflation will probably be a bad thing; in a capitalist system, labour is also a commodity not immune to deflating.
Unlike commodities though, labour tends to take exception to this happening.
I'm not reveling in China's issues, I just don't want to celebrate an imaginary win just because capitalism sucks.
It can be good if you have cash and need to buy things. It can be bad if your retirement savings is a second or third condo that is dropping in value.
it seems the ideal situation is stagflation, no-one is worse off. i have no idea why a small amount of inflation is considered ideal
Because it encourages money to participate in the economy. If an economy gets stuck in a deflationary cycle, it encourages people to stop putting their money into the economy to invest or to act as a way to get people to make purchases sooner.
That can be ideal if you are anticonsumption, but not so much if you are relying on a low unemployment rate to help keep people happy.
that's a good explanation, thanks