this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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[Dormant] Electric Vehicles
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I don't understand the comments attacking Toyota when no auto manufacturer with the exception of Tesla can even get close to the goal. There are approximately 1.6 Million new cars sold in California every year so %35 percent of that is 560,00. Then the next year in 2027 the goal is 43%, and the year after that it's 51% until by 2035, just 11 years from now, ALL new vehicles sold in California are required to be ZEV.
To give you some scope Tesla makes about 1.6 Million EVs a year globally and the "Big Three" made a piddling 200,000 or so COMBINED in 2023.
So the 2025 goal would require nearly half of Tesla's entire global output to be sold exclusively in California and by 2027 it would require that PLUS the combined EV output of Ford, GM, and Chrysler. There literally wouldn't be a single EV for sale anywhere else in the country.
We can scream and fling poo about the domestic auto makers dropping the ball but that doesn't change the impossible nature of California's regulations. I don't see any way at all to meet the 2025 goal and nothing will have changed by 2026.
All this law is going to do is force buyers to out of state dealerships. That's it.
The incumbent car manufacturers had plenty of time to adapt but they chose not to in the name of short term profits. Now they'll move away from EVs with support from the federal government. All this will do is make the US auto industry even less competitive internationally. As a consequence US consumers will pay higher prices for inferior, technologically obsolete products. Congratulations.
Nah, the Big Three have quite a few EV and PHEV models coming over the next 24 months plus Volvo with PoleStar and VW with Scout and several more. EV's aren't going anywhere.
Norway's 92% of cars sold in July -24 proves it is not only possible, but also realistic. It's been done.
According to the sales data I can find Norway has about 130,000 new car sales a year. That's about 1/4th of California's 35% goal.
California is much higher scale and that was the point of my post.
Yeah, I got that. And the point of my post was that expecting and planning for a 35% share is neither unreasonable nor impossible. The "impossible" part is on Toyota, not California.
The UK and Germany are both at about 25% EV adoption, as per news here the last days. That's a combined market about half the size of the USA. That seems to work out rather well in terms of supply.
Unless of course, we exclude all non-american car makers in the world. And that's the issue, isn't it?