Canada

The Trudeau administration weathered the first Trump presidency pretty well. This time, I don't know. PP and the CPC seem to be ascendant, and it's only a matter of time before a Federal election, and then what?

It's disheartening to admit, but despite plenty of warning I'm not confident that the other liberal democracies are well prepared to handle this second Trump administration. It won't be all bad I'm sure, and there has been moves towards resilience and autonomy, but I fear it just hasn't been that effective.

To take one clear example, NATO and Ukraine. From a pure Realpolitik position, sending old US military equipment to Ukraine is probably the single best ROI you could get for US military expenses. It's unclear how things will shake out under Trump, but considering what associations were uncovered around Stone, Manafort, and Bannon, I'm not real confident on Trump's abilities here. Sure, NATO defence spending overall and as % of GDP has climbed dramatically since 2022, but despite more Euros in the Bundeswehr budget, there isn't much more ammo in the cupboard yet. Once Russia is done with Ukraine, Georgia, perhaps the Baltics, Poland, who knows will be next. The longer Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the more degraded Russia is by the war, the better for everyone around Russia.

Combine this a likely tariff spree and trade war with China, we are likely going to be entering a time of fragile supply chains, back to inflation, decoupling from the US as an unreliable partner, and I don't really know what else.

The success of Trump in this last election probably means that Trumpism will be a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future, with history remembering Biden as the last gasp of "normal" political administration. The next President of the US will likely be a Trump appointee or part of a Trump dynasty (maybe the first female US President… Ivanka?)

Canada will have to not just manage Softwood Lumber, renegotiating NAFTA, and salvaging the TPP, but also trying to fill a void left by US withdrawal and diminishment. I don't think Trudeau is strong enough domestically to be able to focus on an 8+ year plan, and I don't trust PP to have any capacity to even have a plan. Although Maybe Pierre Poilievre will have a snappy slogan.

Maybe that is the best play for Canada here, have Poilievre bend the knee and commit to flattering Trump. A new Trump Tower in Vancouver would be a small price to pay.

I think if we had a fresh-faced Trudeau without any baggage, there is a path that Canada is suited for to navigate these coming troubled waters, and I commend him for getting the ball rolling, but I'm just not confident it will play out as well this time.