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HPV vaccine study finds zero cases of cervical cancer among women vaccinated before age 14
(www.statnews.com)
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Early vaccinations are N=40,000 and had 0 incidents of cervical cancer.
Late vaccinations are N=124,000 and had 3.2 / 100,000 compared to unvaccinated N=300,000 had 8.4/100,000.
These are pretty large sample sizes.
The total sample sizes aren’t the problem. It’s the number of people who contracted cervical cancer. I should have been more specific originally: I would want more data to show that early vaccinations are more effective than late ones.
40,000 seems like a lot, but just using data from the late-vaccine group would get an average contraction rate of ~1. That’s enough for an outlier or two to be significant. If 2 of those 40,000 had contracted cervical cancer, it would be a hard sell to say early vaccines cause cancer (though some groups would eat that up). In the same way, I’m not fully convinced here that an early vaccine prevents it more effectively than a later one.