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this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2024
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United States | News & Politics
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One of them is also much less competent and intelligent, which means he's more likely to fuck things up and cause a US/Israel loss.
Theoretically, sure, it's possible. I think what's more likely to happen if Trump fucks up is that Israel will just keep up the attack maybe with slightly less support. It's not like they are a U.S. State that has to abide by a SCOTUS decision; they are (for good and bad) their own sovereign nation and ~~could~~ WOULD MOST LIKELY make the choice to continue their abhorrent actions, regardless of whatever Trump himself might do.
The state of Israel is not a "puppet" of the U.S., only able to make a movement when given a command from the White House; it is closer to Frankenstein's Monster, fully capable of making its own decisions, and sometimes they choose to do evil things (regardless of how 'justified' they tell themselves it is). It's not a 1-to-1 comparison, but I think it's a better way to understand the whole situation
An Israel with less support is one that is in more danger of inviting retaliation from its neighbors.
Of particular interest to me is Egypt, which only cooperates with Israel because of the US. e
I mean, you're not wrong, but again, it's extremely unlikely that Israel/US relations sour SO bad that the US wouldn't step in and help defend an Israel under assault. Again, it's theoretically possible but very unlikely. Plus, what you said is true regardless of who wins in November, which was my original point
I don't see relations souring under Trump, per se, but I do see him fucking up the careful balancing act in that region.
Furthermore, Israel is becoming so unpopular in the US that direct intervention would destabilize the country.
If the goal is defeating the US/Israel then electing an incompetent and unpopular president is not a bad result at all.
I still argue that a second Trump presidency would lead to worse outcomes for everyone involved, perhaps even the entire global population, than a Harris presidency.
I think a successful Trump presidency would be worse for people all around the world.
I do not predict success. I think his presidency will be a disaster.
But ultimately it comes down to how we respond. He won't fail unless he's defeated by a mass movement against his presidency.