this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (14 children)

I work in the middle atmosphere and several things in this article I disagree with. First off, the polar vortex is a stratospheric and mesospheric jet stream that exists in the winter time. There is no polar vortex in the stratosphere during the summer. Let me repeat that. There is no polar vortex in the northern hemisphere right now! So how are you using it for predictions? Second, the media stole the term “polar vortex” for the Arctic jet stream that exists in the troposphere. Moreover, while correlations have been made (see Baldwin et al., 2021) on the stratospheric impact on the tropospheric weather, the physics aren’t well understood. Assuming you can make predictions on the northern hemisphere winter based on the polar vortex in the stratosphere (which again, doesn’t exist yet because it is summer) months out is unlikely.

Edit: I edited out the argument that the OP may not reputable since they are a meteorologist in Canada.

Edit2: I’ve edited my original post slightly after discussing this concept with the OP.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Let me repeat that. There is no polar vortex in the northern hemisphere right now!

Not with that attitude!

/s

Thanks for posting, I always find meteorology fascinating and hungrily read up info posted from people like yourself. Please keep doing it, us buffoons that aren't trained really rely on people like you helping to cut through misinformation when it comes to weather and climate.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Check out this link to see what the actual polar vortex looks like:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-60.71,59.02,169

This shows wind speed in the middle stratosphere. Since it is still winter in the southern hemisphere, you’ll find the polar vortex there. It is the very strong circular vortex surrounding the South Pole. The northern hemisphere doesn’t have one yet because it is still summer here. Hence my argument against claiming it is “weak” in the article. It simply doesn’t exist yet.

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