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this post was submitted on 14 Sep 2024
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politics
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In a speculative market, which is the reality in which we both exist, share value can absolutely be divorced from a balance sheet. As you've pointed out, that is the case here.
So what is the speculative value to an investor? Why ISN'T it zero?
If you have a theory better than "investors believe he'll use his position as president to increase the value of his own holdings if he wins" I'd be curious to hear it.
Maybe it's by making presidential decisions contingent on "friendly actions" like buying shares if you're a foreign nation or even a domestic interest. Maybe he'll award government communication contracts.
Super interested in an alternative explanation, though.
A: I feel like an actual fascist takeover of America would open the door to more direct bribery like wire transfers of large amounts of funds. If you transfer 10M to him he gets the entire 10M not half.
B: I think people buying it either believe in the theory of utility you outlined or are betting on others perception of the utility more so than direct belief in real value as is common with meme stocks. There is also probably a non trivial percentage which have no reasonable theory of value whatsoever which are making an emotional decision as to investing comparatively small amounts of personal monies.