-
Talk of peace talks has increased again recently: the Russians are talking about them, the Ukrainians are talking about them, in the West they are talking about them, even the Chinese are talking about them. One might get the impression that peace is right around the corner. However, to understand what is really on the minds of politicians, you have to look at the details.
-
The Russian leadership stepped up talk of peace against the backdrop of Viktor Orban's visit to Moscow. However, their rhetoric has not changed: they are still demanding that Ukraine surrender the regions in the east and south in exchange for a temporary ceasefire, after which the main negotiations can begin, which in fact will be negotiations on the details of Ukraine's complete surrender and the transfer of control of the country to Moscow. The only thing that has changed is that the Russians have started talking more about negotiations with the parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, as they hope to question the legitimacy of the president once again.
-
In turn, Zelensky also claimed in the media that the "hot phase of the war" may end by the end of the year. However, to understand what he meant - one should pay attention to details, not just headlines. Zelensky said that if the international community continues to pressure the Russian leadership, it will realize that it cannot win this war and will be forced to make compromises. That is, Zelensky argues that the liberation of Ukraine's territory does not necessarily have to be accomplished by military methods alone - if Russian troops are removed from Ukrainian soil as a result of peaceful negotiations, this will also work for the Ukrainians. That is, it should be negotiations regarding the details of exactly how Russian troops will leave Ukrainian territories.
-
In fact, we have a situation where both sides say they are ready to negotiate, but if you look at the details, both sides imply that the other must capitulate. This is not much significant - in any war, either side is willing to state that they are open to negotiating the surrender of the enemy.
-
But what is the reason that so much effort is spent repeating the positions of the parties that have already been voiced? Basically, it all comes down to Donald Trump. Too much is tied up in American politics right now, and it will remain that way until the election itself in November. Trump has stated that he has a plan to end the war in 24 hours if he becomes president. It is absolutely obvious that this plan will not work. However, when it doesn't work - Trump will say who exactly caused it not to work - the Russians or the Ukrainians. Naturally, both sides would like Trump to blame their adversary, the amount of further support for Ukraine may depend on it. Naturally, both Russia and Ukraine want to re-insure themselves in case Trump wins, and that is why they are talking about peace again.
-
However, these talks are not without risks, especially for Ukraine. Ukraine depends on explaining to its allies what is at stake if the Russians win, and that it must continue to rush to make military investments to win. However, if the Western public relaxes from declarations of peace-and assumes that it is near-it could lead to bad political decisions that weaken military aid.
-
One way or another, these peace talks will continue through November. And their intensity will depend on who wins the election. If it's Trump - there will be more of them, if it's Harris - less, especially on the Ukrainian side, where the public agenda is much more realistic than in Russia.
@yigal_levin
Not a bad sum-up of his video. Your own writing?