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On a national poll the dems need to be about 5 points ahead to be in with a shot of taking the electoral college.
This is a step in the right direction, lots of work to do though. I’m hopeful the more folks see of Harris, rather than their pre-existing largely meme originated opinions, the more they’ll like her.
No, they just need to be about 1% ahead in each of the the seven or eight swing states.
Which translates to about 3-5 points ahead in a national poll.
That seems like a dangerous inference to make…
Typically that’s how it works out. It’s not like it’s a hard and fast rule… but it’s generally pretty close.
It's a historical inference being made for the limited purpose of translating the OP story's poll to a relevant electoral outcome.
I don’t think percent works like that.
They do when you take into account that democrats traditionally vastly over perform in their stronghold states like NY and CA in a way that's inefficient for the electoral college. It's why democrats usually win the popular vote even if they lose the election.
I think this number is a little high, but I really want to see a blowout so this is a great goal. The number I heard was about 3%.
Maybe Harris will spank him so hard in the debate that a bunch of republicans will stay home instead of voting at all
I would be shocked if Trump does another debate.