this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2024
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Exit poll predicts Labour will win 410 seats, securing a majority of 170, to the Conservatives’ 131

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Looks like the story of the night is going to be not that Labour gained lots of votes but that Reform has split the Conservative vote and collapsed their vote as a result and its gifted Labour a lot of wins. Lots of tactical voting has led to the Lib Dems gaining a lot of seats too.

Reform has gained enormously, the Greens and Lib Dems less so.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

Yet Lib Dems gained a ton of seats with over 70, and Reform only 4 at the time of me writing my message. Lib Dem wasn't that far behind total percentage of the vote vs. Reform, 12% vs, 14%, which considering they are almost opposite platforms means we shouldn't be talking about Reform in isolation.

Labours total vote percentage is down from 2017 and only a few percent up from 2019, so the Tories collapsed losing about 20% of the vote from 2019. Labour following the center right meant they lost more moderate votes to Lib Dems and were not trusted on right wing issues as Reform picked up those votes.