this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2024
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I don’t know if you missed the part where he brought up “rapist immigrants” when trying to answer a question about abortion that should have been a layup and was absolutely key to this debate being meaningful to voters who are confused, apathetic, or considering voting 3rd party, especially those in swing states.
That was also very unexpected, highly disappointing, and totally unrelated to his tone or volume. No amount of moderation could have helped that.
That's part of the point, the gettable "swing voter", who was hanging on this debate and nothing else to get their confidence just isn't real... If that was the case, why didn't the fucking SOTU seal it for them (again that's if they even exist, as I challenge your basic premise).
People generally know where they stand, with these two especially. And if they do exist and they are truly that "confused"... They are actually just ashamed to be 98% trump leaning and just waiting for any strong fart to push them towards him with " justification' ( if it wasn't this, they would have sought something to fill that need between now and election).
I don’t think any swing voter is “gettable” or “hanging on this debate” though. Pretty significant misrepresentation of my position there so hope this helps. Lot of time till November.
I do, however, believe there are a) left leaning voters in swing states who are turned off from voting blue by the Democrat defense of Israel and capitulation to the conservative framing of the border, and b) right leaning voters in swing states who see that Biden brings up immigration in order to support his abortion position and feel hugely vindicated and double down on their intent to vote MAGA.
Maybe I shouldn’t have used the term “swing voter,” I’ll to back and edit that.
IMO there's also a contingent of people who are demotivated to participate. Lack of participation hurts Biden more than trump.
Despite the danger, Trump doesn't feel like an imminent threat to most people. He's not motivating enough alone to bring out Democratic voters. However you do have a bunch of shit demotivating those voters. Gaza, money, immigration. The only big motivator is abortion, and Biden kinda flubbed that.
A Dem win will be on abortion alone at this point, unless something huge changes.