Of limited interest, I'm sure, but I spent a bit of time working all this out, and wanted to post it before Scotland go 2 down after 5 minutes tomorrow and render it all moot...
So.
If Scotland lose to Hungary, we're out. No ifs, buts, or maybes.
If we draw then we need at least 2 out of 3 scenarios to happen in order to sneak through:
- Spain beat Albania AND Italy beat Croatia
- Turkey beat Czechia AND Portugal beat Georgia
- Denmark beat Georgia AND England beat Slovenia by 5 or more (I think)
If Scotland win against Hungary then any 2 (or more) of these scenarios gets us through
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Spain avoid defeat to Albania (Scotland would finish better than Albania and also better than one of Croatia or Italy, regardless of their result)
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Netherlands beat Austria (Scotland would be ahead of both Austria and Poland)
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England avoid defeat to Slovenia (Scotland would be ahead of Slovenia and also at least one of Denmark or Serbia).
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There's also the possibility that Slovenia hammer England (Scotland could finish better than England on goal difference and also would be ahead of at least one of Denmark or Serbia)
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Portugal avoid defeat to Georgia (Scotland would be ahead of Georgia and also ahead of one of Turkey or Czechia)
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Even if Georgia did win, we could beat them on GD, but we'd have to thrash Hungary, so not likely.
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No draws on match day 3 in group E. Doesn't matter who wins, as long as two teams do.
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Or, if there are 1 or 2 draws in group E then it comes down to goal difference, so we would have to hammer Hungary, see above.
And yes, I made a spreadsheet to work all this out... :-)
😁