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Humanity will shrink in the future: 97% of countries will experience negative growth by 2100
(english.elpais.com)
this post was submitted on 21 Mar 2024
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Well, yes - unless we actually get out in space before 2050, which could make a big difference
Lol space will NOT make any difference at all. That technology is not progressing at a rate where we could have millions, let alone billions of people inhabiting space in the near future. We'd also pretty much be completely limited to our solar system, meaning planet-wise we have maybe Mars and Europa and Titan at best... but there's absolutely no chance of any meaningful colonial activity on those planets, Mars would probably have something similar to Antarctic research facilities on it but that's about it.
This article is projecting 76 years forward, that's not the near future any more.
Near enough to be relatively confident in how much we won't progress in terms of colonizing space. The general public severely underestimates the limits to space travel & survival. It's not like I can tell you exactly what or when technology will be like in some exact point in the future, but it'd probably be a few hundred years until we could actually make nation-sized space colonies, and there's pretty much no future where space habitation replaces or becomes greater than Earth habitation, unless we go ahead thousands if years. There were a few interesting astrophysics papers estimating that near-lightspeed and FTL travel tech is like 8000 years away lol.
"Future technology" can't solve all of our problems. It's not magic.
76 years ago was 13 years before Yuri Gagarin would become the first human in space. It was 4 years after the V2 rocket became the first artificial object to enter space. This is plenty of time for multiple technological revolutions to happen. We're already on the verge of one with fully reusable superheavy lift rockets, most people don't grasp just how big a change will come from having that sort of cheap bulk cargo access to space.
There's no need to make nation-sized space colonies, just make lots of smaller ones.
I would like to see those papers. Making technological estimates on that scale, especially for something like FTL that has no physics backing it at all, is highly dubious.
There's no need for magic, this is really just a question of economics.