I think we have a simple solution here.
Why not agree that people who have coins stored in the the old P2PK format are on notice starting now... to move them to a more secure option.
Start with a target of 18 months with some flexibility as we learn more over the next year.
Those owners should be securing their coins to avoid the risks of quantum capabilities - known and unknown- anyway. Right?
If there are rightful owners "hodling" of course you would take precautions.
This buys time to make good decisions for upgrade solutions, and not worry about a panic setting in.
It also allows bitcoin to demonstrate the threat is being thought through, and acceptable steps are being taken to mitigate both security and financial risks.
I don't care if we think it's 2 years or 20. It will be so much easier to say the risk is being addressed, rather than try to come up with weak talking points to convince us there is nothing to worry about.
In my opinion, this would be much better than having people trying to assess for themselves if the risk may come in faster.
The common argument is other targets would be first. But agencies and businesses are working on the upgrades, so we don't want bitcoin to be left without a good plan to mitigate risk.
And we can eliminate all the efforts going on to try and convince everyone there isn't a concern. It just won't work as we see countries like Australia requiring upgrades by 2030, and major companies working on how to best implement the standards released over the summer.
Isn't this a good interim approach until we know for certain what needs to be done?