The original post: /r/cryptocurrency by /u/holdthefridge on 2024-11-22 15:05:42.
Are you feeling left out by your crypto cousin or friend telling you about their massive gains? Are you feeling slow for not listening last year? But it could’ve went the other way for your crypto friend since 2023, right?
No the bull run is always confirmed. This is why I am writing this guide to help you make decisions based on years of experience as investor, decentralized app maker and degenerate gambler. After reading this, you will be one of us.
First remember, entire crypto has been in a halving cycle. Go ahead , pause reading and search Google image of Bitcoin halving cycle. Each halving cycle the amount of Bitcoin generated given to miners, halves. Fresh supply is halved. This cycle along with growing demand for Bitcoin is what makes an obvious pattern of bull market, alt season, bear market , accumulation season every cycle. I just dropped 4 crypto stages here, they’re very significant and you can Google search psychology of trading chart to match my 4 stages. Remember investing is all about psychology. You’re here because you’re part of the bull market fomo stage. I’m here because I’ve been buying during accumulation stage.
So what do you do?
Any coins that had a great track record during accumulation stage, and it’s a hot topic will always go ballistic in price discovery zone (price discovery zone would be anything that is past its previous All Time High). Buy coins that match this description during accumulation phase but did not reach ATH yet.
Bitcoin? Its way into Price discovery, it reached 100k which is a major psychological level we all wanted to see. It has short term risk (2-3 years bag hold), for long term hold its amazing (10 years)
Solana? Its entered Price discovery mode, risk to reward is getting skewed towards risk. It’s almost time to start thinking about selling 10% every week
Eth? Despite fud and low performance, it’s actually been on a hot streak in news during accumulation stage, it has boomer ETFs. It’s still no where near ATH. Boomers will target this because btc made too much gains. Risk to reward ratio is great.
Other blue chips from last cycle? Check their accumulation stage performance, if they’re limping like ETH, high chance they won’t go up nearly as high during alt season. You want to bet on the winning horse.
What about meme coins? Steer clear of any thing meme related, it’s NOT for you. You must be in the trenches of Decentralized apps. You should know how to put $100 into a random coin before hitting dex, lose that liquidity due to rug, and then CTO it to 10M mcap. If that sounded gibberish to you, don’t even buy meme coins. Well established meme coins will have a pump, the pump will last 1 day. That specific time you will be in the toilet or sleeping or at work, you won’t be the guy to catch the pump.
What about AI coins? Check the pump during last 12 months, if this was on a hot streak, you know people may just come back to the coin. However, the pumps may never come back if the volume is too low. If it does, it’ll last a week max. Be very very careful, it might not be for you.
So in summary, you’re almost too late, with your entrance timing you don’t know when to get out, you don’t know what to pick. Stick to blue chips and come back during bear market for hot coins that didn’t hit price discovery. Come back during accumulation phase for meme coins and degeneracy. Exit during bull run and alt coin season.