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You don't need the USA to be involved for a World War to start. If anything, a civil war in the USA could help spark one.
The peace built after World War II was mainly founded on American and Soviet force not intervening with each other, then American military dominance. Without a USA like power acting as a guarantor of the current international system, it is very likely that decades of pent up aggression will start to spill forward across the globe, including between other major powers.
All I'm going to say in regards to any kind of American civil war is this: Whoever fires the first shot loses.
That's the primary issue everyone is up against. They don't want to be the ones to fire the first shot because that will justify the national guard being rolled out and a massive escalation.
It's not going to end well for the loser.
On Jan 6, armies of magats attacked the Capitol Building with the explicit goal of lynching the vice president and Congress. The president was actively targeting the vice president and it was pretty much the premise of like twelve different Gerard Butler movies and is pretty much the reason that we pretend that soldiers are supposed to question the chain of command and so forth.
The military and national guard actively sat on their hands and waited to see how things would shake out. As much as I hate to acknowledge it, the Secret Service and The Boys in Blue are the ones who saved the country that day.
So no. The first shot doesn't matter and there is no guarantee that there would even be an escalation in the face of a violent insurrection. Because there wasn't.