this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2024
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I still live in Russia and want to offer a bit of an optimistic perspective.
First of all, Putin and the officials siding with him one war or another have been fearmongering a war with Europe, the USA, or even the entire NATO for years already. Granted, they did the same with Ukraine prior to the invasion, but I doubt there's any decision-makers left in Russia that genuinely belive they can swing at NATO and expect anything else but a swift and painful defeat: the amount of resources dedicated to the current attempts to do anything in Ukraine would make it even harder to launch a new offensive, let alone defend anything.
Arguably, fighting Ukraine, Russia is still fighting mostly Ukraine, albeit with significant aid from its allies or at least Russia's opponents; as reluctant as the EU, the USA, or NATO (or some of their counterparts) may seem to ditch the political ratings for either coughing up more resources or even restructuring to produce them, one tendency of our species remains strong: we do act when it's about us, when it's seemingly too late. Ukraine, for now at least, probably doesn't feel like an integral part of Europe or NATO, maybe some even still believe the country to be that similar to Russia, which, combined, explains the rather cautious approach in terms of providing more lethal aid.
If Russia attacks, say, Moldova or Lithuania or Estonia or Latvia or Poland or Finland or anything else (other than Belarus, perhaps), nobody is ever going to think of it as of some kind of conflict between neighbors that somehow seems more complicated than it actually is (partly because both neighbors are slavs and tend to have somewhat nuanced, rather than obvious differences, I guess), and on top of that, any doubts like whether it's possible to wear the Russian army down by dripfeeding supplies to the ones that fight it, or whether Putin can be appeased, or whether Putin will calm down after "reclaiming actually historically Russian land", or anything like that - all of that is going out the window and people start acting, fast, with the combined might much greater than Russia is managing to muster now through elusive contraband military imports and making use of decades-old equipment and economical manipulations.
And in a conflict like that, who's going to side with Russia, against the much bigger dog of NATO? Anyone who joins on the Russia's side gets at the very least sanctioned to smithereens in the event of an actual war, and neither China nor India can have that; some of the dictatorships from the middle east may try, but I doubt they'd want to give NATO a proper excuse.
Putin is a gopnik and understands only the language of clubs and stones - the powers that Putin chose to call his enemies not only have bigger and meaner clubs and stones, but have more of them, and have the means to get even more. He might have attempted something had he actually conquered and held Ukraine, but not after this kind of reality check; he's back to being the strong wife-beating alcoholic that sits tight when a real threat looks his way.
I have a totally different question about currently living in russia. In media we allways hear that protests are being suppressed and a lot of people actually belive what putin says. What is your experience when talking to other people about your opinion? Do you think twice talking about that topic? How many people you know have a opinion like yours?
Great questions, thank you. I'll try my best to stick to the point and provide answers that don't span paragraphs. I've already been accused of my very typical Russian tendency to write out lengthy sentences here.
I think much more than twice before I indicate my position towards Putin, his government, or the war whenever I'm not talking to people I know I can trust. As important as it feels to "spread the word", it's just not safe to be display disloyalty towards the regime: some may tell the police about you (sometimes deliberately exaggerating to cause you more trouble), some may try and fight you, which sometimes ends really bad, and at the same time, sometimes it's just a very regular, easy conversation where you just share your opinions and go about your business, no harm done.
Sometimes, judging by what the people you're conversing with say and how they say it, you can tell whether they're capable of even thinking of doing anything nasty if you disagree and to what degree. It's still best to not risk it and steer away from that kind of talk with strangers or people you're not sure about yet.
Like MINE? Probably just me alone, but I'm saying this because the topic itself already encompasses a lot of issues, like the international law, Crimea, decolonization, imperialistic complexes and ideas, patriotism, guilt, various traumas, and many other things. There's no way two people agree on everything - I've met people who are just as anti-war and anti-Putin and pro-west like me, very liberal or left-leaning and all, but can't even begin to imagine Russia having to pay reparations after the war; there's more: I personally know a person that wants all of it to end, like no Putin, no war type of attitude, but they seem to have something personal against Ukrainians, as if they actually hate them. It's very nuanced and complicated.
That being said, if we boil down my opinion to something as practical as "Out with Putin" and "No more war", then every single person I know would fall into that category: including the people from older generations, the ones that were most affected by the propaganda. Some of them are bitter about it, like they don't want the war to end with anything less than a total Russian military victory, a complete defeat and conquer of the entire Ukraine; some are much closer to me, thinking that the Russian army should just pack up and leave to the borders that were internationally established in 1991, so Crimea goes back to Ukraine as well..
So, in general, the people who want the war to go on are an actual minority. Everybody is tired of it, but each in their own way. I don't think anyone has been affected in a positive way, not after 2 full years of this: even pragmatically, we've all lost too much in both short- and long-term as a country, and even some of the "luckier" people who maybe got higher wages on their industrial facility because the demand has increased go to the same supermarkets and drug stores as I do, they go to the same hospitals, use the same infrastructure and all that, and they've surely suffered the consequences as much as anyone else, and even their (most likely temporary) material gains could never make up for, say, ruined international relationships, maybe ruined personal relationships, maybe dead relatives, and many other things.
Having said all that, I will also tell you this as a bonus: it's getting harder to disagree. Even the pro-war bloggers (the so called z-bloggers) are now getting the stick treatment for getting out of line; they used to think that they're the in-crowd and they have the free pass on reporting the real state of affairs, i.e. openly talking about problems, losses, incompetence, etc., but one thing a dictator can't have you do is steer away from the official line, as that hurts the narratives the propaganda is going for. The irony knows no bounds.
P.S. Still got lengthy and all, my apologies.
That was super interesting, thank you for sharing!