this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2024
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[–] [email protected] 57 points 10 months ago (10 children)

Thus far we’ve not seen any impact on air freight prices as it’s the post holiday low season without all the e-commerce demand that drove the high air prices in Q4. A 747 cargo plane can only carry around 7 ocean containers worth of cargo though compared to 10,000+ for the mega container ships, so it won’t take a lot of companies deciding to shift cargo from ocean to air for the air cargo market to become capacity constrained.

What a wild difference between the cargo capacity of the two.

[–] [email protected] 52 points 10 months ago (9 children)

Yeah and the broader point is an important one; it won't be too long before the impacts of this shift are very obvious in the marketplace. The US is under enormous pressure to get things back to normal, but the guy in charge is more pro-:isntrael: than Reagan, so I don't see any way that can happen.

[–] [email protected] 40 points 10 months ago (8 children)

At some point, shipping magnets all along the Mediterranean are going to start pissing themselves in frustration.

Also, can't help but see the BRI guys feeling a little extra smug about their plane for overland transport through the Middle East.

There's a reason why Reagan wasn't willing to tolerate Israeli bullshit, and it wasn't because of his deep love and respect for the Lebanese people.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (3 children)

Also, can't help but see the BRI guys feeling a little extra smug about their plane for overland transport through the Middle East.

I had actually forgotten that China's belt and road initiative involved electrified freight train routes from China up through Russia or the middle east into Europe proper. Iirc there is also work to build routes from China deep into Africa to allow reliable trade of resources and goods without ocean going freight.

Years ago I was honestly surprised to learn that there wasn't already a reliable freight train network connecting all of continental Asia, Africa, and Europe. That everyone was sending freight longer distances via ocean going freight traveling around continents rather than via rail in straight lines over land seemed so wasteful. Ocean going freight should only be necessary for oversized freight, island nations, or freight between the eastern and western global hemispheres.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 10 months ago

Intuitively, boats are more scalable than trains so to some degree it makes sense. Today, ocean shipping is cheaper than over land.

China's feeling extra smug because their state-owned shipping can still transit the Red Sea lol

[–] [email protected] 21 points 10 months ago (1 children)

There was probably too much conflict and war in Europe in the past for countries to build international networks like that

[–] [email protected] 27 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Yeah. I remember something about everyone intentionally using incompatible rail gauges out of fear that other nations would use trains for military invasions. It's only been in recent decades where we have started to see a globally adopted standard rail gauge for freight networks.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

China went from virtually no rail freight to Europe to a million TEU last year

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