this post was submitted on 07 Aug 2023
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@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis IIRC most studies show that long term storage is only a few percent of total energy, certainly well under 10%. So it is a viable option - if you can get past leaks, and other problems (e.g. the temptation to burn it, producing NOx pollution). And can store vast amounts of energy relatively cheaply.
Nuclear is of course a viable option. There are a few others e.g. iron-air batteries, or just building a lot more renewables than we need. Long range interconnectors help. Lithium is only helpful for short to medium term storage.
Re synthetic fuels, so far extremely expensive and limited scale. Might possibly be used for aviation in the long run (but it's easier just to fly less, and we still need a reliable, safe solution to the contrails problem). Maybe shipping too (possibly as ammonia).
@matthewtoad43 @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
In terms of filling in the gaps in #energy production we could do some fun maths. Imagine massive #renewable overcapacity and see what storage we need.
Just move the yellow and green lines up x3. This is a typical summer week but we could also look at winter months (less #solar more #wind?)
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Well, California has done a lot of the work for you. Have a look at their charts, including multiple GW of battery storage.
Also the study I posted about Australia. There was another one but I lost it on the other place. You can get *most* of the way with a few *hours* storage, not weeks.
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis What that means is if you're going the long term storage / hydrogen or iron-air batteries route, the inefficiency doesn't matter (but the capital cost does).
On the other hand if you try to reach 100% with minimal demand side interventions even in emergencies, you end up building way more (~3x) renewables than you ideally need. Which has a cost - rare earths etc.
But there are plenty of options for managing intermittency. All of them have problems or costs though. Which is one reason I'm not strongly opposed to nuclear, for instance, but nor am I terribly enthusiastic about its ability to deliver quickly enough.
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Also, which country is that? Look at e.g. today's UK chart - wind was dominant until 6:30PM. Sadly this service does not include batteries because there's no data on *charging* them.
https://grid.iamkate.com/
@matthewtoad43 @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
You got there too quick for me to add this
Here in Europe (yes the UK is still in Europe, brexiteers can't change geography)
Here in Europe we can help each other out and sice we have such varied #energy systems, Norway with it's #hydro France #nuclear the UK can easily pick up a few % or lend a few % when needed.
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Yup, lots of interconnectors being built/planned in theory, but they seem to take ages. We need more in any case.
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Africa too - see the Xlinks project: 10GW Saharan solar + battery + 3.6GW interconnector -> UK baseload equivalent to a nuclear power station.
Although that is now dependent on a 20GWh lithium battery, which somewhat stretches credulity. Not to mention the usual questions around appropriation of land and water etc.
https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-project/
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Maybe. It depends where the cars are plugged in at the time. The charging infrastructure to use them all at once would be pretty serious/expensive, especially if it has to support fast charging in e.g. a (potentially systemic) personal emergency as well as efficient slow charging with V2G.
And the transition to EVs is going to stall pretty soon, because a large proportion of people people do not have driveways or garages, and public chargers are expensive and slow.
Also, I'm hoping the peak number of EVs will be somewhat less than the current total number of cars - we get to sustainability faster with fewer cars.
V2G is interesting though, I agree we should make use of that resource.
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis What would the cost be of fast bidirectional charging points for all those cars though? Both at office and at home? Do you need them to be fast charging, or is V2G at 7.5kW realistic/useful?
You'd be lucky to get 30%. IMHO the resource is somewhat limited depending on how much you put into charging infrastructure.
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis IMHO reusing ex-EV batteries as grid storage may be more important in the medium term though.
@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Ardubal @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Also, smart tariffs for EV charging (dependent on when there is most renewable energy) already exist, at least two companies doing them. That's not V2G though.
@MattMastodon @matthewtoad43 @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
Sorry to interrupt, but nothing about this is Β»trivialΒ«.
Also, you must compare the complete system. Let's summarize just two options:
- Nuclear power plants, and the grid as is.
- Wind turbines, solar panels, plus a multiple of the current grid, plus hypothetical storage tech none of which has passed the pilot stage yet.
What is your bet? How do you think decarbonization has /already/ been achieved?
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Short term storage already exists. So does wind, solar, at considerable (though inadequate) scale, and cheap (bottlenecked mainly by grid connection). Dynamic demand exists to some degree and so do interconnectors.
Lithium batteries exist at reasonable scale in other countries, notably 2.5GW on California's grid. There are active trials of V2G but IMHO reasons to doubt how big a contribution it will be. Reusing EV batteries as grid storage exists at a small scale.
Nuclear power plants take forever to build, in recent experience in the UK. Even National Grid doesn't believe the government's promised 24GW of nuclear will be done for 2050.
There are uncertainties whichever way you go. So we need several strategies. However, it's worth pursuing iron-air batteries and possibly hydrogen as well as nuclear. But arguably they are only needed for the last few percent anyway. And I will *not* accept any attempt to slow down installation of renewables in favour of nuclear.
Decarbonisation, in terms of electricity in the UK, has been achieved through both nuclear and renewables. Fossil fuels are down to 40% of total units generated.
Figures for the last year in the UK:
Source GW Percent
Coal 0.32 1.1
Gas 11.30 38.3
Solar 1.38 4.7
Wind 8.82 29.9
Hydroelectric 0.34 1.2
Nuclear 4.44 15.0
Biomass 1.49 5.0
Unfortunately nuclear plants are closing rather rapidly, and it will be some time before replacements are online.
PS IIRC there are plausible sources saying that you only need renewables equal to ~3x plus short term storage. Both aspects of this are technically feasible and proven today. But obviously it means more rare earths etc. More nuclear, or more long term storage, or more interconnectors etc, reduce the cost.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis So no, nuclear is not the only proven option by a long way. Nor is it a feasible option on its own IMHO. And new designs increase risk and time. Building multiple reactors to the same design saves time and money, of course.
Nuclear is an option. It probably isn't enough on its own any more than any of the other options are. There is absolutely no reason to stop building renewables, and slowly scaling up various storage options, today.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Also on the timescale: Labour have officially said they would reach 100% clean electricity by 2030, starting in 2025. That's generally seen as challenging, but it may well be possible (albeit at a high cost in lithium and rare earths). There's no way it can be done with nuclear. In any case we need to move fast; most of the rest of the transition depends on clean electricity. My main objection to nuclear is simply that it will take another 20 years to get maybe 3 more reactors if we're very lucky.
@matthewtoad43 @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
I'm not saying 100% nuclear would be best, but I /know/ that 100% volatiles + storage + transmission are practically impossible.
Up to around 40% volatiles can be compensated by a large grid. The rest can, with current or near-future technology, be nuclear and/or hydro. With middle-future technology, this /might/ be gradually replaced by more volatiles+storage+transmission.
@MattMastodon @matthewtoad43 @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
This is just the fact: there are, at the current state, only two energy sources that can form the backbone of a decarbonized grid, and they have proved it, hydro and nuclear.
Hydro is not available everywhere, however, as it has really large area demand, and geological requirements.
And I repeat: nuclear /is/ very capable of load following.
And I repeat: batteries at the needed scalability don't exist (yet?).
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis As I already mentioned, California has 2.5GW of batteries today. And credible half hourly models suggest that you only need hours of storage to get up to approximately 98%.
There are lots of ways to solve intermittency. Nuclear is one strategy that potentially works, but still needs short term storage - modern designs can vary load, but not quickly.
3x renewables plus a few hours storage is likely fine. So is a lot of nuclear. Hydrogen or iron-air *might* make the whole thing much cheaper, but indeed are immature technologies. More interconnectors are mature technology that always makes it easier, but are not enough on their own; dynamic demand is helpful and semi-proven.
But building "too much" renewables while we wait for nuclear is fine. Because most likely that nuclear will never be delivered. At least not in the UK. And as I understand it the supply chains don't really overlap. But above all because *it's the total carbon emitted that matters*. We're on a deadline.
I see no obvious reason to expect that the UK can build large amounts of nuclear quickly, even if there was the political will to do so. Successive governments have tried and failed. On recent progress, by 2050, if we're lucky, we might have 3 more 3GW plants running, which is nowhere near current demand, let alone future demand with electrification.
Even if the government meets its own target of 24GW by 2050, which seems extraordinarily unlikely given the slow progress so far, that will be a lot less than the total peak demand given electrification. So you still need storage.
So I'm not going to campaign to stop building renewables on the basis that one day we *might* build more nuclear.
Having too much renewables is *NOT* a problem, especially when compared to nuclear that will probably never materialise. Worst case, switching off wind and solar farms is much easier than switching off nuclear reactors. Best case, we can export that energy, use it for intermittent energy intensive industrial processes, or store it.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis What you say about "40% volatiles" is a myth.
Currently we (UK) always run at least ~3GW of fossil fuels, as well as a surprisingly variable amount of nuclear, because of the inertia problem. That will be solved by 2025.
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/electricity-explained/how-do-we-balance-grid/what-inertia
Britain is up to 36% renewables *on average* over the last year, and still building fairly quickly. Plenty of countries have much higher proportions of renewables. But they also have other ways of dealing with it, e.g. Denmark's trick was always much more energy trading.
Iceland is 86%, Norway is 76%. It can be done, though these figures are inflated by geothermal and hydro, which may not be viable for the UK. Sweden is 63%, but that includes a fair bit of biofuels. California is already up to 59%.
Intermittency is a problem, there are lots of ways to manage it. Nuclear is one of several options.
The amount of lithium batteries needed to reach 100% is probably ecologically unreasonable, although several academic studies do talk about this. So we probably do need some nuclear, unless iron-air batteries or hydrogen pan out rapidly. Nonetheless, the idea that there's a ceiling of 40% is way out of date.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/01/20/which-european-countries-use-the-most-renewable-energy
https://www.govtech.com/smart-cities/california-hits-new-record-for-renewable-energy-generation