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Then why do they never win any votes in the electoral college? When is the last time a third party ever succeeded nationally in the US when it didn't involve the dissolution of some other party that preceded it?
That's not math. those are just questions.
Then I guess I'd like someone to explain the mathematical probability, because from an empirical standpoint I haven't seen anything to disprove the claim being made above.
you can't prove a negative, but a positive claim has been offered here. so the person putting forward the claim must support it, as a claim made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
You absolutely can prove a negative, actually.
The very assertion that a negative claim can't be proven is itself a negative claim, to frame it another way. Though that claim is unproven as it would be a paradox to be otherwise.