politics
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
view the rest of the comments
It's funny you post this because I literally just ran the numbers on the Senate races here:
https://lemmy.world/post/20162109
tl;dr - Unless the Democrats get on the stick they WILL lose their senate majority.
Right now, it's 50 R and 46 D with the 4 Independents (Sanders, King, Sinema, Manchin) caucusing with the Democrats to give it a 50/50 tie.
Harris, as VP, breaks the tie and gives the Democrats majority power.
BUT -
Manchin, I - WV is not running. His seat will safely go R.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/west-virginia/
51 R - 46 D - 3 I. Democrats are out, Republicans are in
Tester, D, in Montana, is well liked, but for some reason he's behind in the polling. It looks like the Democrats will lose Montana too.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/
Now we're looking at 52 R - 45 D - 3 I.
Democrats should take Sinema's seat in AZ, but that doesn't change the math as she's I currently.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/arizona/
So 52 R - 46 D - 2 I.
Ohio is way, way closer than it should be. Really a toss up at this point.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/ohio/
So, at a minimum, in order to maintain a 50/50 tie with a Walz tie breaker majority, the Democrats need to claw back at least 2, maybe 3 seats from the Republicans.
Michael Steel says Florida is possible, polling doesn't look likely:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/florida/
Of course, everybody BUT Texas wants Cruz out, again, Texas gonna Texas.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/texas/
I'd love for somebody to bounce Hawley out, but that's unlikely.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/missouri/
The special election in Nebraska of all places could end up being the surprise:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/nebraska/
So here's a scenario:
Put a bunch of money in Montana to hold Tester's seat. Put a bunch of money in Ohio to hold Brown's seat. Give up West Virginia because that's a lost cause. But flip NE from R to I and hope Osborn caucuses with the Democrats.
50 R - 47 D - 3 I (Sanders, King, Osborn) - 50/50 tie with Walz as the tie breaker.
The Senate is currently 51-49. The Democratic Caucus has 51 members.