Happy New Year!!
This is not investing advice thread. Just a discussion, I want to know your thoughts and analysis on the ai16z token future.
Before explaining my point of view, I'm NOT a professional investor or trader, I do it as a hobby, and I've recently started developing some interest on the mathematical analysis of stocks and crypto. I'm a computer scientist so my interest is more into the technical part of ai16z rather than the speculative part, this is important to understand my opinion and probably the interpretation errors that I have and that I would appreciate if you could correct.
Said this, I'm heavily divided. On the technical part, the project is hella promissing and it deserves the love it is getting, but the Eliza project is still in an alpha state, as you can see on their github. I feel optimistic about the agent and the use cases it will have, but, how this connects to the token price? Here is where I'm divided. The token is already #200 on market capitalization, 2B in. This could be understandable for a project which is already developed and working great, but it is still an alpha, what can happen then when the project gets fully released? Usually the boom on successful projects comes after the releasing, but this is extremely big already. Do I think it will drop and it is overhyped? Not at all. The question is, How much can the token's value increase? If it would do a x2 in market capitalization it would surpass Virtual value rn and become top 30-40. I feel like this is doable, and will happen, but what comes after that? The hedge fund functionality is something to keep and eye on. If I'm not mistaken, when fully developed it will invest the money put into the coin and make investments which might increase the value, with the potential to reject speculative bear tendencys on the coin value, something which as far as I know havent happened before AI tokens appeared, as the value of them would depend completly on the money put into them, they couldnt "generate" more value by themselves. This can be huge, bring the token price even further up, but then again I ask myself... How far can it go? If it does a x3 it would be top 36, a x5 would mean top 20, x10 almost top 10, same value as coins that had been sucessfull past multiple cycles.
So here it is the discrepance. We are talking about a token which has done more than a x130 during the alpha version of the project, but has a potential of doing a x2 or x5 short term (Prolly after I say this, it will go down into the bottom as always happens :p) and it could happen that the project would still not be fully developed when the x5 happens. But what comes after that? Usually the real big movement comes after an start-up or project fully develops and proves to be successful, but this one is "touching the roof" way before that. So what is his future? What could we expect?
My division/discrepance is that technically I could believe that the "good" part comes now, because something successful is about to come. But looking at the crypto market it seems like it can't go too far up (short term) when the project gets released (x2, x5) which is faaaaaaaar less than the increase it did before.
To end this "monologue" I want to set my bets which AGAIN are NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I'M FOR SURE 100% MISTAKEN. But just to come again to this post in some weeks/months and get a good laugh:
I'm bullish on the token and the project. I would say a x2 in the next weeks, and from that point I dont know at all what could happen. Maybe a x5 when the final projects gets released. But I dont see how could it go further than that as the market is rn.
What are your thoughts?
Edit: Grammar
