EXPERIMENT - Tracking 2022 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – Month Thirty-Four - Down -44%
Find the full blog post with all the tables and graphs here.
Welcome to your monthly no-shill data dump: Here's the 34th monthly report for the 2022 Top Ten Experiment featuring BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, ADA, USDC, XRP, LUNA, DOT, and AVAX.
SNAPSHOTS ALWAYS TAKEN ON FIRST OF THE MONTH (data below reflects 1 NOVEMBER Pre Melt-Up Snapshot).
tl;dr
- What's this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top 10 Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, reporting monthly for nearly 7 years. Did the same in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments (including why in the world I would include stablecoins) here.
- OCTOBER Highlights: - Mostly red month. Only BTC and BNB in positive overall territory. SOL getting close to break even. 2022 Top Ten is the worst performing portfolio, by far.
- DCA'ing just once a year into Top Ten Cryptos for the last 7 years has produced much better returns than S&P 500 over the same time period 198% vs. 66% (see below for details)
Month Thirty-Four – Down -44%
https://preview.redd.it/yc0hgdv3593e1.png?width=1099&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0a03fe66252477a65f770d15cd05a40ca444f93
The 2022 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio is BTC, ETH, BNB, Solana, ADA, USDC/UST, XRP, LUNA/LUNC, DOT, AVAX.
October highlights for the 2022 Top Ten Portfolio:
- Mostly red month, with the exceptions of BTC and SOL
- BTC solidly in first place with BNB in second
- Nearly three years into the Experiment, most coins haven’t reached their break even point yet
- The 2022 Top Ten Portfolio is the worst performing of the seven Top Ten experiments, -44% as a whole.
October Ranking and Dropouts
Here’s a look at the movement in ranking thirty-four months into the 2022 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment:
https://preview.redd.it/4lxs11eb593e1.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=3717d5b8e4e40ca30a6c360091e89916e3523401
With a few notable exceptions, there has been remarkably little movement in rank after nearly three years.
October Winners and Losers
October Winners – BTC (+10%) and SOL (+8%) easily outperformed the field in October.
October Losers – XRP (-18%) fell the most this month.
Overall Update: BTC maintains lead over BNB. Only BTC and BNB are in positive territory. LUNC worst performing in the 2022 Portfolio and worst performing crypto of all the Top Ten Experiments.
BTC (49%) maintained its lead over second place BNB (+12%). SOL is in third place at -2% since January 2022, nearing break even point.
Ever since LUNC’s (then known as LUNA) crash in May of 2022, it has remained hopelessly at the bottom, worth a fraction of a cent. The initial $100 invested in Luna thirty-four months ago is worth $0.0001 today – the worst performance of any coin in any of the seven Top Ten Experiments, by far. It’s hard to remember/believe that LUNA was the highest performing Top Ten Crypto of the first quarter of 2022, before the crash.
Additionally, at -44%, the 2022 Top Ten Portfolio is the worst performing of the seven Top Ten experiments.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2022:
https://preview.redd.it/0dqn9l6g593e1.png?width=303&format=png&auto=webp&s=c425ed5afdc5ac49496a6f63847691f04f59fdd9
Overall, the 2022 Top Ten Portfolio is down -44%. The initial $1000 investment on New Year’s Day 2022 is now worth $555.
There hasn’t been a positive overall ROI month yet, although the 2022 Top Ten Portfolio flirted with the break even point in March 2022.
A note on USDC/UST
In retrospect this was not my best idea: I was a bit bored of simply holding a stablecoin in the Top Ten as I’ve been doing since 2019 and thought I’d showcase some of the possibilities available in crypto to build on stablecoin holdings. My plan was to start nice and easy with trusted CeFi platforms, taking advantage of sign up bonuses, then move to more advanced DeFi strategies. As fate would have it, I decided to showcase the TerraLuna chain converting my USDC to UST and then staking with Anchor.
It was all going pretty well until May 2022. Then the LUNA implosion happened. My UST is now worth $2.24, down -98%.
It’s a good reminder that anything can and does happen in crypto and we should all continue to be careful. I’m thankful that the lesson only cost me $100: I know a lot of other people got hit much, much harder.
Total Crypto Market:
The entire market has done much better than my Top Ten portfolio, +6% since January 2022:
https://preview.redd.it/r6pvnv9t593e1.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1a31e6afe5d7ca542ec4f01de4065e44815db44
Bitcoin Dominance:
BitDom ended October at 59% and has slowly but steadily been rising since late 2022. Chart below:
https://preview.redd.it/h96cia8v593e1.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ad10273aab33d7ccd4b3adb3ed75efd0c4cb91f
For those just getting into crypto, it’s worth paying attention to the Bitcoin dominance figure, as it can signal appetite for altcoins vs. BTC.
Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios
The 2022 Top Ten is one of seven concurrent experimental portfolios. Where do we stand if we combine seven years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments?
Taking the seven portfolios together:
After a $7,000 total investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $20,829
That’s up +198% on the combined portfolios. The peak for the combined Top Ten Index Fund Experiment Portfolios was November 2021’s all time high of +533%. Here’s the combined monthly ROI since I started tracking the metric in January 2020 for those who do better with visuals:
https://preview.redd.it/vitj36vx593e1.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=474c35ac8625e2e62a3cb73c3dbe880bd1ac38dd
In summary: That’s a +198% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for seven straight years.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my Experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets.
https://preview.redd.it/qc88z4b0693e1.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=da1780e68ac96fd418f34e41d7e5b3d353b3e684
The S&P 500 is up +20% since January 2022, so the initial $1k investment into crypto on New Year’s Day would be worth $1,200 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Taking the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments, the yields are the following:
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $2,143 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $2,286 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,774 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,525 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2022 = $1,202 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2023 = $1,492 today
- $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2024 = $1,201 today
Taken together, the results for a similar approach with ...
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