Wallstreet Bets

Fuck this.

I've lost thousands these past couple of weeks thanks to agent orange here who's been threatening Taiwan with all sorts of bullshit. This has affected the whole chip market, which in turn affected the EV market and other computer hardware manufacturers.

Already, the EV market wasn't doing so well due to lack of enthusiasm from consumers who can barely afford a shelter over their head, let alone a good damn electric car at the price they're selling them. This also affect the EV battery industry and everything related.

My ETFs we performing poorly already, so on to of this with the chip industry stocks tanking, I decided to sell everything.

Instead I'm going to invest in SAP which seems to be doing well and I think they announced they were going to enter the travel industry with a new platform? And their stocks are going strong.

Oh and it looks like its up another 50% ah.

Its going to be one of "those" days tomorrow.

The stock is up 30% you 📰 🖐 's

Note: This would be RoaringKitty's first live stream in 3 years.

My reaction when those calls put on another 200% today:

Since ARM got listed at $45 back in October, its seen a pretty good run-up. It peaked at around 160 after its listing and has been able to hold up at least 90 since then. Neat but nothing spectacular. Nothing crazy but prob a good ROI if you were interested in buying the day of.

Since then we've seen Apple further commit to the ARM based M4 chips. Now its Microsoft seems fully committed to ARM based processors for whatever their new "AI on platform" product is going to be.

We're also seeing a whole new form-factor of device with the steam deck and its new competitors. ARM is not there yet in terms of being able to run all of the software that has been built around the x86 architecture, but we also just got the news of Microsoft releasing the PRISM x86 to ARM interoperability layer. Now is it good? Idk. Likely ymmv.

So lets summarize. The two biggest hardware+ecosystem players both seem fully committed to ARM. ARM runs cooler, and more power efficient than x86, but until very recently, no one was designing around it for 'performance system'; its domain was that of embedded hardware and phones. We have a whole new class of products gaining market penetration in the form of hand-held gaming PC's or steam deck type products. These products would benefit MASSIVELY in terms of performance with better performance/ power ratios. Likewise, with the advances in ML, manufacturers are looking to move inference onto device. And this is exactly what Microsoft and Apple appear to be doing. All of this depends on ARM.

Now the bad. ARM had a bad earnings last quarter and the price dumped from 160 to 90. Its recovered to 115 since then. However, it didn't have the press that it does now. The new Microsoft line wasn't out yet. We hadn't heard of or seen the release of the M4s. I think there is good news out there in the mix for ARM this quarter.

Ultimately, some company is going to have to get in there and compete for AI acceleration, and doing so in a more cost effective, more power efficient way seems like a no brainer.

If you are thinking about microprocessors, you first question should always be "Where is Jim Keller eating lunch"? The answer? Tenstorrent. They aren't publicly traded yet, but guess what architecture they are building around?

You guessed it. ARM/ Risk-V. You follow Jim Keller around not because Jim Keller knows the future, but because the future follows Jim Keller around.

TLDR: ARM is massively undervalued and represents the future of computing for smaller, cooler, more powerful computing and AI. Its what Jim Keller has decided to spend his time on. If you just throw your money at whereever Jim Keller is currently working, you'll make bank.

Positions: Shares that I bought at listing that have given me a very noice ROI (not selling options on them), and the August 15th $115 calls. I'm planning to hold the calls through the earnings run up, and I'll hopefully sell some of them to cover the cost of the position to hold at least a few through earnings. ARM is still very new, so earnings could be a mixed bag.

cross-posted from: https://lemy.lol/post/22844267

Need Opinion.

What do you think is the right way to play this bet in the polygon prediction market?

Is playing contrarian gonna give a huge pay off?

Or Is going with the market trends going to help make decent but sure shot gains of 4-5%?

By the way the election result is to be declared on June 4th, 2024.

I still see most people in his favour despite everything.

I personally don't like Modi much but as a business decision there are higher odds in betting in support of him.

What are your thoughts on this?

Canoo’s Oklahoma City Manufacturing Facility Approved as Foreign Trade Zone

So if you gambled on my last DD you might have picked up some Canoo shares as a legit moon shot play. The 23-1 stock split was a big punch to the ribs, but today, GOEV is up ~70%-ish on news that their manufacturing facility in OK has gotten approval to be a Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ). This effectively make GOEV the largest FTZ in Oklahoma, which isn't saying much because hey, its Oklahoma.

That all being said, shit was getting dicey last week and after the reverse stock split, things were looking bad for GOEV, since it dropped almost 50% on that news. Today however, it pretty much made all that back up, which sets up an interesting earnings play.

On earnings, turns out ToS was lying to me. The real earnings date is April 1. With this big price move and news, that brings more focus onto the earnings call, but it still wont really mean shit because this is a brand new company still building out manufacturing. I don't expect break even until maybe 2026. That all being said, its getting in on a US based EV manufacturer, most of whom have shown many many to one rate of return for early investors, even those whose cars are only powered by gravity. I don't think we're still in that world, and GOEVs vehicles do actually move under their own power, so that's a big plus.

I think this news really mitigates most of the downside risk and I might hope for a price between 5-6$ post earnings. Earnings at this point in their lifecycle is kinda bullshit so grain of salt and all that. But its a calendar event with a specific timeline, so it should move things.

Position is still shares (<1k shares). I'm not betting the farm on these guys, but I think the upside potential is still very strong and that we'll eventually see one of the major manufacturers take a large stake (that's when we'll see a 10x day).

So that's my GOEV DD update. Depending on your timing from my last one, you either are break even or doubled up. But today is a very good day for those holding GOEV.

Seeing as there is pretty much no WSB style content being posted, why not a bit of a DD? Well, a half assed DD. I'm just playing in a funny money account, so this is just for moonshot plays, but I think GOEV might just be one of those.

Canoo (ticker: GOEV) is a company based out of Michigan/ Oklahoma/ Texas, who is a US, home grown, battery EV cargo and van production company. They've been taking their time, but between last earning and this one, they shipped their first vehicles. They're just now begining to ship vehicles, so unsurprisingly, haven't posted a profit yet.

I've been holding GOEV since I saw some trailers for their Canoo vehicle, and the stock has been in a tailspin for quite a while now. The short position seems to be covering in about 1.5 days, so surprisingly not terrible. My thinking here is to be positioned for some good news. Earnings is on March 5th. My main thesis for this play is that they've just had a bunch of great press this quarter. They got vehicles into the hands of the Oklahoma state government, US Postal service, and some other federal agencies. This company seems to be focusing more on fleet, which to me, last mile delivery at low speeds is like a no-brainer for battery EV. I think the vans might be just dorky enough for the Federal government to consider them.

My play is just holding shares, because the price is so low (I nailed it on a similar play with Sundial when it was a penny stock). I'll probably double my current position (just a couple thousand shares) and hope for a pop next week. If it doesn't pop, I'll probably either fold or hold for another quarter depending on the numbers.

Ready to lose it all next week.

I don't exactly find a bunch of lemmy communities for WSB. Is there an expat community I don't know of?

Peace

I've got put spreads on COIN. I'm watching QS, will go long or short depending on price action.

What are your plays?