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The fediverse will fall under the same pressures that caused the censorship in other areas when it gets big enough.
Isn't it de-centralized though?
Yes, but I think it's as @[email protected] says. As any form of social media grows past a certain point, the more everything becomes 'averaged out' to the lowest common denominator. IE the things that get upvoted the most end up being only things with mass appeal across the breadth of the user base. From past experience we know this is by and large rage-bait.
Of course this can be mitigated to an extent by carefully curating what you're blocking and subscribed to. Furthermore defederating can effect this but I'm not yet knowledgeable enough to guess how effective.
We may understand that, but I don’t think that the groups that will want to censor will.
That's why it will fail. One can just repost the same thing via a different instance, which the group that wants to censor them may not have control of.